It's actually more complicated than simply tracking chip test complexity and/or chip supply. Keep in mind that, as chips become more complex and faster, there is a demand component that addresses the need for better testers. Also, as chip output increases, there is a volume driven component.
All tester manuf have products that increase the volume efficiency need at the lower cost end, and address the complexity issue at higher cost end. Total unit demand actually could decrease if tester efficiency (test more devices at once) increases faster than production in the low cost market segment. High cost tester demand (test superfast chips of highly complex design) has a relatively inflexible demand because increases in test capability usually come at the expense of efficiency. There are designs on many drawing boards for which no test solution is currently available at rated speed. This is especially a problem with ADSL, SONET etc where data rates are going to the terabit level, but testability is stuck at the low gigabit level.
The net result is that quantum leaps in product performance usually cause a burst in tester orders at the high end where margins are good. Cost constraints for low ASP chips will drive an increase in efficiency, lowering the number of testers required. This is easily visible in the see-saw swings in tester shipment rates over the last few years.
At the end of the day, despite the gloomy analysts, the party is far from over - just think of it as somebody just refilled the punch bowl! |
