To EACarl (and others):
Your argument is very compelling. Indeed, all the KLIC bulls have very compelling arguments. I've said all along that I have no special insights into this industry. I'll be the first to admit I don't understand all the technical details.
What I do have more experience in is understanding Wall Street, analysts, insiders, and investors. The only reason I'm safely on the sidelines at over $70 is because I imitated the actions of the insiders. It's that simple.
Thus, I've been trying to focus my discussions on market dynamics instead, backing away from discussing the cycle itself, where I have little insight.
In a nutshell, investors are not interested in rounded, plateau portions of the curve. They are not interested in prolonged pauses. They are certainly not interested in down cycles. They only want to be part of the sweet, rapidly accelerating part of the curve.
Also, savvy investors are NOT interested in a low P/E for a cyclical stock. They completely ignore the P/E. All they care about is where they are on the curve.
I've discussed this before, and was ridiculed and dismissed. It may not be a bad idea to reconsider my arguments:
Message 13787317
Thus, it doesn't really matter whether this is truly the beginning of a down cycle, or merely a pause in the setting of a continued uptrend. Investors are looking out 6 months and don't see rapidly accelerating growth.
The earliest I see KLIC making a sustained move up would be in November (best case scenario, in anticipation of the next leg upward for the cycle). If we are approaching the true top of the cycle, then KLIC is dead money until the very bottom (worst case scenario). |
