ML:AMAT mgmt bullish on semi cycle
Excerpts fr ML research 8/10/00
Management upbeat â bullish on the cycle!
The management was upbeat during the conference call.
The company continues to forecast that the semiconductor
capital equipment is alive and well. By its estimates, there
are 29 opportunities in 2000 (13 new fabs and 16 major
expansions) and 31 opportunities in 2001 (16 new fabs 7
of which are 300mm and 15 expansions). Many of these
fabs are mega-fabs, running 60,000 wafers per month, 50%
more than a typically fab in the last cycle. The company
sees DRAM and 300mm being the key drivers for the next
up leg of the cycle. We continue to receive data points that
300mm is accelerating. The company booked its 300mm
tools in the quarter and expects to start recognizing
revenue in the first two fiscal quarters of 2001. The
company now sees at seven 300mm fabs in 2001, this
number has continued to trend up over the last several
quarters. Bookings were 50% in logic, 25% in foundry,
and 15% in DRAM. DRAM is still trending at historic
lows as a percentage of both orders and revenue. The
company continues to expect a shortage of DRAM to lead
to accelerating DRAM spending starting later this year and
next. Copper and low-kâs material rollouts continue as
expected.
Japan Accelerating â Taiwan resting
Key regional highlights included: Taiwan was in-line with
expectations and is currently flattening at a high rate of
growth. Applied Materials predicated that Taiwan would
be resting at this high level for the next 1-2 quarters. Japan orders almost doubled sequentially, as Japan is starting to
spend aggressively. Japan is focusing most of its attention
on consumer electronics and emerging broadband
technologies. Europe is firmly spending continue to
expanding its communications focus. Infineon,
STMicroelectronics, and Philips were all highlights as
companies that are dramatically adding capacity. |
