Semiconductor and Semi-Equipment Analysts - Their Calls Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semiconductor and Semi-Equipment Analysts - Their Calls

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To: FJB who wrote (97)	8/11/2000 9:34:50 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	of 195

>>I realize you were joking around a bit, but there really is nothing preventing companies from stopping at the fab shell phase, which is only 10% of the cost of a $2B 300mm fab.<< Sure, but only if they know that the demand that justifies the fab won't be there. Most of the time that goes into building a fab is for equipment installation and qualification. Once those steps are underway, it's a lot harder to put the fab on hold. The "build out faster" behavior was quite common in the last downturn. I'm not convinced that human nature has changed. >>DRAM sales reached a record high in bit terms in 1996. They reach a "record high" every year.<< That's exactly my point. Demand, which will supposedly save us from cycles, remained quite strong during the worst downturn in 20 years. Katherine

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