Actually Lithium Tech can manufacture both lithium-ion polymer and lithium alloy polymer batteries using their web process.
I already posted info on the batteries rating on the Lithium Tech thread, so I don't really want to start repeating myself. You'll find the post easy enough because its a very short thread. More like a piece of lint.
As so far about relevant variables, this is my take:
Although these batteries will be used in high-tech computer and electronic products, these companies aren't really in the electronic business, they're in the chemical business. The technology in this industry doesn't change as quickly as say do microprocessors or graphics chips. Unless some other unknown chemistry lies out there, these lithium polymer batteries will probably be the last big technological leap for a long time. Even though competing chemistries may be more efficient at storing energy, the solid polymer electrolyte just simply offers too many advantages when miniaturization is required.
If you can agree to that, then you must figure in five to seven years, we're going to see a maturation of this industry. What will this industry look like then? I think it'll be an imperfect oligopoly of a number of major players, selling similar (but brandable) products to many customers (such as cell phone makers, name-brand and clone pc makers, etc. I think the OEM customer base will outnumber the number of manufacturers, like in the graphics accellerator industry).
Because of the sector's high growth rate, the high performance rechargeables industry could easily include ALL of the companies that are presently trying to commercialize the technology. I have an intuitive feeling that these batteries will stimulate a new wave of demand by consumers unsatisfied with the life of their current computer or phone (get ready for those 'Lithium Battery Inside' ads....), just as the Pentium and Windows95 stimulated computer sales.
Because of the high costs of these manufacturing plants, the high costs of research and development, and patent protection by the current players, any company not in R & D right now will find it very difficult to enter this industry after these companies get going and enjoy economies of scale.
So if we are looking at an imperfect oligopoly, it should be that all companies will be somewhat profitable.
Therefore, the real relevant variables aren't WHr/Kg, WHr/L and Number of Recharges; they are variables that only measure how efficiently the raw materials in the product are being utilized. The real relevant variables will be: cost of raw materials, labor, rent and machinery.
I hope this sheds some light on my position.... |
