Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 230.17

-1.4%

Nov 7 3:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (37410)	9/22/2000 6:08:58 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Cary, thank you for posting your observations. From here much depends on individual expectation for cycle length, 12 more months, 18 more months? There WAS flattening last summer - followed by steepening. geocities.com It seems everyone knows the cycle will end, but not at what level of orders. The other unknown is the future level of the trough. Discounting of stock price seems to occur earlier now. If the peak price is not reached again and the uptrend in orders continues 12 more months, then peak price has occured about halfway into the uptrend [or 1 1/2 years before an order top]. Donald Wennerstrom has a more optimistic outlook Message 14439204 As for me - I just make charts. :) Gottfried

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