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Strategies & Market Trends : MOVING NOW!

CTIC 9.090

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: SMALL FRY who wrote (977)	10/12/2000 3:17:38 PM
From: Connor26	Read Replies (1) of 8046

some comments i think worth reading about the markets C26 As things get ugglier I think we are at or near the capitulation phase as volume is high and mideast tension is a good excuse right now. The worst of the near term EPS news is likely factored in although estimates for 2001 are still too optimistic in my opinion...so more of this could be seen in the first half of 2001. The lower low in NASDAQ is what I hoped we would get back a few months ago and my read is that fear is high now especially versus the bottom last May. All of this is good for a short term rally. October marks the end of mutual fund tax loss selling and I have to believe the selling in the past two days represents the fact that big gains have been realized since last Nov 1 and yet unit values are down in 2000. Managers feel compelled to lower gains by taking losses so I believe a big bounce is likely starting prior to Nov 1 Another near term trigger could be a positive election outcome as perceived by the markets in early November. Any rally could see tech rebound sharply just as fear is rising and as a consequence the steady growers may sell off on profit taking. In my view the trend still favors the latter rather than a return to tech leadership but a strong tech rally could confuse everyonr even more...so dont discount the chances. We are well into a correction in the big averages and down 40% in NASDAQ....a bear market no matter how you count in the latter index. Rebounds are usually fast and sharp as last June showed but it was over almost before you knew it had begun. The message is not to chase rallies in the environment we find ourselves in but also not to panic in the down days but await the inevitable rally phase. But and its a big but do not forget to sell what you want to sell when prices rise if that is your intermediate term intention. Personally I believe NASDAQ will hold 2800-3000 and see over 3600 again in calender 2000...but it might be a bit of hope and will not happen if the public begins to sell tech and aggressive growth funds in the near term .As an indutry we are still subject to the attitudes and the whims of the public

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