the FED is no longer out of the picture here..and my guess is after the election if things continue on this upward path, they may raise rates again...
Just to keep a difference of opinion on this thread, and an open discussion <g> I am still surprised at your recent bearishness, as I am still an unrelenting bull. With the exception of my distrust as Friday's rally unfolded, I always turn bearish for a short time at the absolute bottom, a great contrarian indicator <g>
My opinion only... is that the economy may soon show signs of slowing too fast, since the reaction is so delayed, and that there is the possibility of a coming recession. Barring unforeseen disasters, the chances seem slim of a rate drop to me, but the chance of further increases seem even slimmer.
I am seeing signs of the "Wealth effect" diminishing everywhere. Fairfield County, Connecticut is where a large amount Wall Street Big $ earners live... Greenwich, Stamford and Westport in particular, right next door to me. I am in the midst of it here - (although unfortunately just an observer LOL) - huge beach houses and custom built mansions and lots of Mercedes and Lexus SUVs. Seems like the the wallets are tightening slightly around here to me compared to a year ago...
Not to say that it's up up up from here, but I think the bull lives on, but we will continue to have incredible volatility, a true gift for daytraders and that it will be a VERY rocky road. Not only are traders part of the cause of the volatility, but now the big boys also as they have been trading short term just like us. In the end we can end up being the beneficiaries of the volatility if we stay on our toes. But it's a stockpicker's market out there, and if you choose the right picks, it could appear to be an awesome bull market with those sunglasses on... |
