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Technology Stocks : Conductus (NASDAQ: CDTS) superconductors
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To: arun gera who wrote (88)6/26/1996 9:50:00 AM
From: Frank Byers   of 352
 
Comparing smart antennas to improved receive filtering is sort of an apples to oranges comparison. Smart antennas can improve both forward and reverse path link budgets, as well as allow an increased frequency reuse pattern, so more capacity is realized at each site and the site coverage is increased. I know I may sound bearish on the Rx filtering improvements and the commercial value of them, but really it's a question of what is the best way to approach the "problem", if there is one. Low noise figure amps using conventional GaAs or HEMT devices, coupled with wave guide or other types of filters can offer much improved performance, relative to no tower top LNA at all, with none of the drawbacks of HTS filters such as single point of failure for the whole site to go down.

Smart antennas are still pretty much in development, except for what Metawave can provide an AMPS/NAMPS 800 MHz service provider. It would seem that nobody wants to pay $200k for these benefits, as Metawave has not sold a single system yet. Same could be said for Conductus filters. Investors are apparently a much easier crowd to convince of these benefits than the people who would actually buy one. Some niche markets could develop for hts filters, but I don't know if hts filters will become a standard piece of equipment in urban or rural sites unless they find an answer to some of the questions.

If CDTS price gets a little lower, I would consider playing some money in it, because they are not placing all their bets on HTS cellular filters. Other applications may prove to be the "killer" that they are looking for. If they can gets some sales in the cellular/PCS markets it would allow them to get some operating experience with these products and help to ease fears (assuming all goes well) of downtime and servicability problems. This would then benefit any future products they might come up with for wireless applications.
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