Well, I got enough of Week 1 done to feel somewhat able to make a prediction on Monday. Again, since it is the first day of the week, as you noted earlier, it is a bit harder to predict, but I will give it a stab anyway.
Given the Thanksgiving day break I had a bit of a time trying to find something that resembles what we have just gone through, but the date I like best is 10/5/98 for what to expect on Monday. I picked out five days, with that being my favorite, and 12/29/97 being the second favorite.
I expect either a one way up or a V shaped day with the low coming fairly early in the V shaped day.
Regardless of whether we open on a high or a low, the first point of the day should be 9:40 or earlier...the average time being 9:34. If that is the low of the day, then the high will come late, with the average time being 15:47, but my expectation of it being even later than that and much closer to 16:00.
If the open is a high point, then the low should come at an average time of 11:35, but that is very squishy with almost a 2 and 1/2 hour leeway. Since I favor the 10/5/98 comparison, I would expect that low to be earlier than 11:35 and in fact probably land between 9:50 and 10:30 would be my best guess.
So either go long pretty much off the open, or if we are trailing down at the open, look for signs of a low from 9:50 to 11:35, with expectation of it being early towards the 10:30ish range.
Should be a good day to be long. Wonder what that says about the expectant weekend events.
-Scott |
