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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (13732)	11/28/2000 2:24:32 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) of 18928

Hi Jim, I saw the same segment. The fellow was talking about a market bottom being very close at hand in the first part of the talk. Later, (and I may have been interrupted) it seemed that he lost his train of thought. He was stumbling around right to the last syllable. The IW's been descending at a fairly steady pace. It took the longest time to unwind the Speculation component, the main reason we had a High Risk spike a while back. Now finally it's showing some balance. This week's Best Performer in Value Line was Healthsouth, up 128.9% while Priceline.com was the Worst, down 89.1%. These two aren't too far off. If we look at the bottoms of those two Value Line lists, we see Converse Technology up 46.9% while PRI Automation was down 53.8%. Added together these two give a slight negative value which is usually a healthy, somewhat bullish sign. We may yet see my Speculation indicator go Bullish. With last week's bashing, my Best/Worst index could easily go into negative values which I interpret as very Bullish. It indicates an "Oversold" market. aim-users.com As you can see on the graph, the Speculation indicator has only now dropped into the Neutral range when smoothed with a 6 week exponential moving average. The raw data shows 3.3, so over the next few weeks the eMA should continue to drop. The last time this component was in the Bullish part of the graph was back in 1998, just before the speculative run of 1999. Best regards, Tom

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