Hi Everyone, It must be that there's no more powder left in the keg - not much posting going on!
I did manage to get some ADCT shares sold the other day at $25-5/8. I haven't done any buying this week as of yet.
The market is showing signs of stress. My hope is that Veale's Best/Worst index will finally give us a bullish signal as of this coming week's IW report.
aim-users.com
As you know, my Best/Worst component measures Speculation in the Value Line 1700 stocks. It's Neutral Range is from zero to 10, Bearish is above 10 with Bullish below zero. Last week it showed 1.5, the lowest reading we've seen since November 8th of 1999 when the NASDAQ stood at 3102.
So, Mr. Buynhold is currently showing a loss of about 10%..... How well did you AIM during the same period? My account is still showing about a 16% gain for the same time frame. Not only that, but my warehouse is heavy with inventory, priced to make good money in any recovery rally that comes along.
In spite of the gloom and doomers on CNBC, I think we've set the stage for a reasonable 2001. (remember, CNBC is now broadcast LIVE around the world!)
My Divergence component (Fosback's Hi/Low Logic index for the NASDAQ) shows the market is bent on being ugly. Not much divergent thinking when there's only 116 New Highs and 1330 New Lows during the week (Bullish)! Those new highs and lows are based upon the latest 52 weeks. At yesterday's close the NASDAQ Composite was down 21% year over year. So, it's easy to see why there's so many new lows being generated. Just think what these statistics are going to look like come March!
The week of March 6th, 2000 showed 1005 New Highs and 358 New Lows (a Bearish reading) and the NASDAQ Composite Index hit 4914 by week's end. Just about a month later during the week of April 24th and with the NASDAQ at 3321, there were just 89 New Highs and 708 New Lows (back to Bullish). The market had stalled and the bubble's deflation was under way.
So, I'm almost gleeful that the Divergence index has gone decidedly Bullish.
aim-users.com
I think we can all expect to see short term profit taking along the way back to a recovery. Chances are we AIMers will get our chance to participate as momentum shifts back to the bullish mode. This should give us all a chance to recover some cash for our reserves. I really don't expect rational behavior in the next rally any more than in the past, but I do believe the Wall of Worry has been fortified and will be a bit tougher to scale this time around.
My broker has a full load of Limit Orders on the Sell side waiting for when the money starts to move back towards equities. Some of those orders are nearer filling than others but I can afford to wait.
Best regards, Tom |
