RESULTS: 11/2000 G&K PORTFOLIO SURVEY
Methods: Personal portfolios were submitted voluntarily, and at random, between 11/26 - 12/1, 2000. Individual stock selections were enrolled into an Excel spreadsheet, and weighted according to the data submitted. Cash, mutual funds, and groupings unidentified (ie, “2% biotech basket”) were arbitrarily lumped as “other/cash”, as they represented potential reserves with which to purchase a gorilla/king tech equity. There were 114 portfolios submitted. Each portfolio averaged 10.3 equities/cash positions, which is slightly decreased from the average of 11.9 last Spring.
These results are better than 95% accurate, but not perfect. Previous Surveys for comparison are found here:
November 1999:
Message 12130960
April 2000:
Message 13530736
Question #1: What do you own?
The 15 Most Widely Held (%)
11/00 4/00 11/99
QCOM 90 87 96
NTAP 73 70 20
CASH 66 55 32
GMST 63 73 58
JDSU 60 75 52
SEBL 48 64 13
CSCO 46 54 49
CREE 44 57 18
EMC 36 26 34
SNDK 28 14 3
INTC 25 25 21
WIND 25 24 8
RMBS 21 6 4
SUNW 16 14 13
ORCL 15 14 4
Top 15 Most Heavily Held (%)
for the entire Thread Portfolio (pooled results)
11/00 4/00 11/99
QCOM 24 24 44
CASH 18 10 4
NTAP 7 7 1
SEBL 6 6 1
GMST 5 6 6
CSCO 5 7 6
JDSU 4 11 9
CREE 4 5 1
EMC 3 1 3
INTC 2 2 1
WIND 2 1 nil
RMBS 1 nil nil
SNDK 2 1 nil
SUNW 1 1 1
SDLI 1 nil nil
Discussion/conclusions:
1. QCOM remains both the most widely and heavily held.
2. CASH has taken on increasing importance over the last 12 months.
3. EMC, RMBS, WIND & SNDK are stocks on the rise in the Survey; the last 3 represent “gorilla candidates”, as thread members continue to search for riskier, but more rewarding holdings.
4. JDSU declined among both widely and heavily held groupings.
5. ELON, which was the 9th most widely held at 33% of the Survey participants in 4/2000, fell to 12% ownership. ELON at the end of 11/2000 represented just 0.3% of the entire portfolio weight. This may reflect sentiment that ELON has hardly crossed the chasm, and is not near the tornado, and the greater volatility associated with chasm stocks. IMHO, ELON’s rapid ascent from hardly anybody owning it in 11/1999 to 33% in 4/2000, to now just 12% is an example of GroupThink, rather than DD.
6. MSFT has declined in ownership as well, falling from 20% in 11/1999 to 12% now. This probably has more to do with fundamentals, than GroupThink.
Question #2: What was your biggest investing mistake of 2000, and why?
#1. Poor timing/not taking profits soon enough/greed….39%
#2. Chasing Shiny Pebbles……17.5%
#3. Miscellaneous **……..15%
#4. Not paying enough attention to valuation…11%
#4. Using margin/options………10%
#6. Not enough due diligence…5%
#7. Not finding this thread soon enough….2.5%
**miscellaneous comments included not listening to spouse; giving advice to others, and the resultant guilt derived therefrom during a Bear market; not selling due to perceived fears of taxes; not having enough cash in reserve (dry powder) for buying opportunities.
I would like to thank everybody for their generous submissions and the words of support in public and by PM I have received. I am looking forward to hearing comments of these data by the Thread. As always, it is a privilege to participate here.
Sir Apollo |
