I don't see tech being a complete bear throughout the year. It appears to me that the money flow is weakening in boxes, yet remains strong in networks. I expect this gap to increase into 2001. Small/medium cap suppliers will benefit. As an example, I foresee INTC putting more emphasis on their network products as a diversifier to chip revenues. A smaller supplier, such as Technitrol (NYSE:TNL) benefits as a component supplier to those products. Tech for 2001 won't be like the past several years, but a shift from one sector of the tech industry to another will see it remaining healthy.
Secondly, non-tech cyclicals will strengthen at an accelerated pace. Olin Industries (NYSE:OLN) is one such example whereby an upturn out of a cyclical slump was well underway during 2000. The money flow, still in last-stage-mesmerisation with tech, didn't notice. With this current tech disillusionment, companies like OLN will pick up at a faster pace.
Finally, I like home builders right now—particularly those who specialise in fast-growing Western markets such as Colorado, Texas, and California. Southern Pacifc (NYSE:SPF) is one such company. A weird factoid recently reported: vacancy rate in Silicon Valley is -1%. More people than living quarters. Outrageously priced as it already is, more building is still required.
IPOs: I'd avoid all of them right now, with possible exception for any presented by FBN Associates' Capital Resource & Placement division.
…my two cents worth, probably over-inflated at that.
-MrB |
