N,
I paid a brief look at the fate of our (or my) Jan 2000 candidates, and the lesson from it is that they should not be held at all:
AMMB: Jumped after Jan 03rd; now at around 20% of its value (after a 1:5 R/S)
KLOC: Doubled 2 times (Dec 1999 and Jan 2000), now at $ 1/16, BK next door.
FOB: Did not run in January but ran hard after value stocks have been discovered; currently $9, up from $7 Dec 1999.
PROG: Ran hard late 1999; now at 2.5, down from 5.80 late 1999.
AOR: traded 8 late Dec 1999, had a mesly jump in 2000, but now at 2.5,
LII: Like FOB it had a run after March 2000, not in January but gave back all gains later this year; trading 7.5, off $2 from Dec 1999.
NMGC: a troubled card maker; $10 Dec 1999, down to 2.75 after a series of downgrades and business exit.
PDX: With healthcare in bullish mode, the stock rose against all odds throughout the year and is at $24, 350% of the initial purchase price. Clearly the No.1
SVM: very rangebound, basically flat ($10.25) compared to Dec 1999.
BTOB: Uh! After hitting 11 in Dec 1999, it rose for one month to $24. Like any BTB stock it imploded and trades under $2 (acquired by VERT, but even this is a drag).
LSON: Ridiculous! Down from $60, they waived a flag (through media): " yes we're a tax loss selling 'victim' "... alas, Lerached etc... later they announced a spin off which, of course, never happened. Recent price. $0.22 trading on the OTCBB, or about 2% of last year's price ($10).
Summary is:
Except one hits a sector which is absolutely disliked in bullish times (healthcare was) it does never pay off to hold tax loss selling candidates through january, latest feb or march. Best is to sell more shares than previously bought...
The interesting point is that the winning sector pick (PDX was) was the pick which was viewed most sceptical initially... |
