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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Paul Shread who wrote (36772)	1/2/2001 12:41:12 PM
From: eddieww	Read Replies (1) of 42787

Many will probably think I'm as crazy now as I was Aug. 21: Message 14250454 When we made those numbers I suggested: Message 15038682 Message 15039144 correction to NDX I consider these, except the NDX, a relatively soft landing result. Now I'm not too sure we won't get a hard landing and a reversion to more historical valuation levels. You could reasonably draw a TL from the lows of late '87 through the lows of '94. It's true that '90 dips below, but I can draw them where I want -g-. At the same time do a Linear Regression from late '87, whose values correspond to the lower TL pretty well. Here's what I get: <Pre> compx TL 1594 LR 1442 ndx 937 752 djia 6878 7400 spx 818 839 We aren't in a bear market yet - the spx and djia haven't participated. I look for a good chance of the compx holding 2000 while spx and djia catch up, then they all fall together for a while. For those who think Uncle Al will save the day by aggressively lowering rates, I suggest you look at the "prices paid" component of this mornings NAPM as well as a recent chart of the US$, which is falling pretty fast. If he can save it, he'll need to pull a heck of a rabbit out of his... Can you say "recessflation"?

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