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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector
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To: Marsha Landau who wrote (2479)1/11/2001 3:08:08 PM
From: rich evans  Read Replies (3) of 2542
 
This is my keep the thread alive post. Great day for all ECMs today. Motorola's statements on lowering manufacturing costs are IMO giving investors reason to buy the ECMs. With growth slowing down from 50-60% to 40% , the ECMs took way to much of a hit in the NASDAQ downturn and did not provide the type of protection as diversified electronic manufacturers that we I think had all hoped but maybe the market perception of these companies (which was wrong IMO) will change and they will be seen as good defensive plays in a slowdown and hold better next time. FLEXs growth if it keeps at 40% will reach IMO the 25 bill that Marks has talked about by 2004. I think JBLs growth has better chance of maintaining itself just mathematically as their revenue base is smaller then say SLR at 24 bill, therefore an acquisition will do more for them percentagewise. SANM should mantain growth as they seem to be the only game in town for complex backplanes and those who think it is overpriced and shorting are making a grave mistake IMO. I continue to sell puts on this one albeit far out of the money ones. Next week should be interesting with the stealth rally continuing today on the NASDAQ and options expiring next FRIDAY. Us ECM holdovers should post more even though the old stalwarts; have retired having received too much grief and crap from the "ignore" one. Still very long on this industry despite a 50% haircut from the high good old days. It won't take much too recover in my opinion and the growth even at 40% will be the saving grace. Now "let us all pray." Ahmen.
Rich
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