Stocks Crossing The 13 Week Moving Average <$10.01 Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stocks Crossing The 13 Week Moving Average <$10.01

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To: James Strauss who wrote (7536)	1/14/2001 9:09:49 PM
From: Chisy	Read Replies (1) of 13094

James: Found this on another web and sorry to say I lost the link. I am in agreement with the following. Are you? Hope Bernard is listening. The only problem I see for the general market right now are options expirations and I don't know how to ferret out info on how that should affect all of us. .................................................. "On a weekly closing basis, the Value Line on Friday closed at an all time high. The Value Line index is an UNWEIGHTED index of the 1600 largest stocks on the NYSE. Every stock weight is the same. So this tells you that once you get away from the huge ones, the rest of the market is doing great! It also tells you that the market at least now does not believe a recession is coming. New 52 week highs on the nyse over 400, 600 last week, as new 52 week lows below 60. For the first time since summer, the yield curve is finally back to normal. Until this week it had been strongly inverted (90 day t-bill higher then 10 year note higher then 30 year bond). With this week back to normal with 30 year highest and 90 day lowest. This inverted curve did correctly predict the slowdown we are now in. In fact, the huge difference gave a 50% chance of recession according to a fed reserve study from early 90s. Corporate rates as measured by the Dow Jones Bond average continue to plummet as the average rockets up. So the interest rate picture is much improved from the past couple of months. Interesting to note how the 90 day rate had held up while the other 2 fell a few weeks ago. Right after the 90 day rate started to fall fast in last couple of weeks, the fed cut its rate. A lot of people out there says the fed takes its clue from the bond market. With the huge plunge this past week (from 5.8 to 5.19%) in the 90 day rate, the market is telling the fed to cut again in another 2 weeks. Let us hope the fed is paying attention in 2 weeks and does not blow this rise out of the water. And with long rates way down, a new wave of mortgage refinancing is starting again. This will pump money back into economy 6-12 months out. One item that bothers me is Investors Intelligence bulls up over 56% with bears 32%. Do not like the high bull numbers so still believe markets will be choppy for a while with the trend tho up." ....................................................... Chisy

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