Are LRCX and NVLS and KLAC taking market share?
Well, let's look at one extremely UNscientific gauge (and add KLIC to the mix, as is my wont).
Short sales.
I've placed two posts on the KLIC thread recently regarding short sales in the sector over the past couple of months:
1. This post Message 15256011 shows that AMAT, NVLS, and KLAC have 3 of the 4 greatest increases in short selling among the selected SEMs over the past 2 months. KLAC had the largest increase (147%), LRCX was in the middle of the pack...and KLIC had a 21.7% DECLINE in short sales during this period. The data showing 4 month short selling indicates KLIC and LRCX with relatively minor increases while AMAT and KLAC saw higher shorting volumes.
2. This post Message 15261331 focuses on a direct short selling comparison between NVLS and KLIC. This one is really worth pondering: to quote, '..during the period 7/00 to 1/01....KLIC short sales remained about the same (4.7 mil). ....[while] NVLS' short sales increased from 2,476,952 to 13,018,178 ... -> an increase of 426% in 6 months!'
To those who are suggesting that NVLS is about to outperform (as a possible result of taking market share from AMAT), there seems to be quite a number of investing investors who beg to think differently. Similarly, investing investors appear to have a much more sanguine view of KLIC, especially during the last 2 months, than of NVLS, KLAC, AMAT, and most other SEMs.
Perhaps folks think short selling is a lousy indicator, or it's a contrairian signal (i.e. those companies with elevated short selling will fly when the covering stampede begins). But when patterns emerge where one stock is performing substantially better or worse than its peers, by whatever measure, putting one's personal proclivities in place of compelling factual data can whoop yo ass silly. |
