SO....
Stock Attack II Thread has been launched, this time on a moderated format, due to the following argument:
Message 15333642
Most of this is centered around the debate whether or not the Nasdaq 100 Index is or is not in a rising wedge formation.
Chris has inspired me to put together a list of posts that I think should be added to this list, just to round it out. I think the bottom line here is that while analysis is important, it is the strategy, the IF>THEN scenarios that can be constructed out of it, that really matter. IMHO, being dogmatic does not serve a trader well, nor does being a permabull or permabear. The trader's job is to make money.
[Some of these posts are from our thread at Yahoo!Groups, which exists to disseminate my free market commentary and analysis. If you did not join the thread, you will not be able to see them.]
January 5, 2001
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January 7
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January 10
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January 11
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January 15
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January 17
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January 17 The Wedge is First Identified
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From: "Teresa Lo"
Date: Wed Jan 17, 2001 4:22pm
Subject: NDX Analysis for Wednesday, January 18, 2001
Excerpts from today's Trader's Master Class, with strategy for tomorrow at the very end:
She Said: 01-17 09:27 (ET)
Basically, we're going to see what happens on a test of resistance here at the high of the "Greenie Spike" day...that's all my game plan is here...
ispeculator.com
She Said: 01-17 09:29 (ET)
But first, there is this test to contend with...everyone seems really bullish this morning, foaming at the mouth, regretting what they've missed...interesting.
ispeculator.com
She Said: 01-17 15:56 (ET)
If we look at the 65M chart of the QQQ, we can clearly see a volume relationship to confirm a rising wedge here, complete with a trap at the open formed today. Note that large volume spike. Remember my comments this morning about them all foaming at the mouth, wanting to get in, so bullish?
ispeculator.com
She Said: 01-17 15:53 (ET)
Was just looking at the QQQ and had a REALLY NASTY thought...
She Said: 01-17 15:54 (ET)
...let's go over strategy for tomorrow, in light of this nasty thought.
She Said: 01-17 16:03 (ET)
Remember I have been having all kinds of problems figuring out this daily chart since the pattern was so erratic?
She Said: 01-17 16:04 (ET)
Drawing lines is no problem, and we knew that it was a poke up to the downtrend line, as we have been saying for days.
ispeculator.com
She Said: 01-17 16:05 (ET)
Well, NOW, it is all clear here.
She Said: 01-17 16:06 (ET)
This morning's action confirmed a rising wedge on the daily chart, starting with the Greenspan Spike.
ispeculator.com
Given that the NDX is now testing the downtrend line, and resistance from the area of the 20-day EMA and the 50-day MA, and there is this rising wedge pattern here, we must clearly be careful since a rising wedge typically resolves to the downside, with a target of the place from whence it came, and in this instance, the low of the Greenspan Spike. Breaking this low would be a huge blow to confidence in the market.
So while the trendlines and patterns are being tested, we are careful, but with that huge blast of volume in the QQQ this morning, it makes me think that if this market cannot go up tomorrow, and continues down, it will be a big down day. Since we closed on the lows of the day in both the SP and ND futures, there will be a lot of longs trapped, and they will have to admit defeat at some point, should the move down continue, and they will be looking to get off their positions.
Teresa
January 18 IF > THEN Scenario is Constructed
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January 18 Wedges within Wedges
Message 15205280
January 22 Targets Confirmed
Message 15226488
January 25 A Question from Catlady
Message 15248417
January 30 An Answer from Teresa
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January 26
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January 30
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February 2
Message 15288969
February 4 Don Says: "No, it's NOT!"
Message 15297951
February 5 "No, it's Not! Part II"
Message 15299022
February 5 Don Sew
Message 15299255
February 6 Now or Never Time for the Wedge
Message 15303812
February 6 Paul Shread
Message 15311354
February 7 Teresa: "Yes, is IS!"
Message 15311416
February 7 "Channel" is Broken
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February 7 It really is...
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February 8
Message 15319728
February 9
Message 15319842
And so it goes... |
