Trade What You See, Not What You Think Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Trade What You See, Not What You Think

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To: aldrums who wrote (439)	3/6/2001 9:08:45 PM
From: Moving Sphere	Read Replies (1) of 867

aldrums, Thanks for the comments. >>"Even if we do not identify a current edge we need to use discipline to patiently and objectively watch the market to be ready if and when an edge develops. I am sure you know this is so much harder than it sounds."<< In other words, if I only trade the trend and not bottom-picking, then I will be watching the Nasdaq patiently to see some sort of higher lows and higher highs before initiating long position to catch the meat of the uptrend. Yeap, I may have to wait thru the better part of this year if economic data doesn't support a reversal to the uptrend. The hard part is really the waiting part when you have nothing to do in the market. Missing the bottom should not be a concern because it is difficult if not impossible to pick bottoms consistently. In fact, I'm counting on missing the bottoms in order for me to see some sort of strong supports on the uptrend before I start moving my money back into stock position. >>"Keeping this in mind opportunities might develop in the current market conditions that you would not consider in a bull/trending market. We need the discipline to continue to seek out these opportunities, and who knows, they may present themselves when we are ready to see them."<< Opportunities in market condition other than bull/bear/trending market are really setups for trading in congestion market. Trading congestion is really another form of picking tops and bottoms- you are trading ranges. The problem with trading range is that some of these ranges are small and not consistent. The size of the range may change just when you thought you got it nailed down; thus creating whipsaw. From my past experiences, the efforts were just not worth it. It reminded me of moving a boulder up the hill only to see it rolled back down to the bottom when you missed a step. A lot of concentration and effort for nothing, so to speak. Perhaps, other will do quite well trading range; but I just couldn't make it worthwhile. >>"Time to go ice fishing"<< Statistic says that by going ice-fishing frequently, you are increasing the probability of falling into the water thru the thin cracked ice. So, I'm staying put inside my warm cabin with a cup of hot mocha and my favorite book. <g> >>"I never have traded in a bull market."<< You are kidding me, right? Cheers! :-)

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