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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: matvest who wrote (15342)	3/23/2001 7:59:38 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) of 18929

Hi Larry, Back in January we had a one week blip where the Speculation Index fell into Bullish territory. I presented statistics going out into the future of where the market usually was after this kind of event. Well, this time we need to go a lot further!! (Report, January, 2001) NASDAQ 3 Month Change From Bullish Speculation Value DATE % CHANGE IN NASDAQ THREE MONTHS LATER 12/09/91 +10.0% 08/10/92 +15.5% 12/26/94 +10.4% 01/29/96 +14.0% 07/29/96 +13.3% 05/05/97 +22.1% 12/15/97 +15.4% 09/14/98 +23.6% 10/18/99 +44.3% 01/05/2001 ???? That brief one week signal has been followed on by some very peculiar trading. Essentially all of the above "Bullish" signals by Speculation lasted several weeks. Maybe this one in Jan. was just a statistical blip caused by the data from the Dec. sell-off. The market switches gears much faster than in the past. This may make a Low Risk measure less and less probable in the future. Nothing stays down long enough to get the statistics to the Bullish phase! Look at yesterday's last half hour rally. Best regards, Tom

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