Hi Gary, This article tells it like it is, just reporting the facts, and then the wishful thinkings, leaving the hooha and yahoo to the reader ... which I have provided from my perspective, in [CAPS].
Chugs, Jay
nytimes.com
QUOTE
Taiwan's Reaction Is Muted on Bush Plan to Offer Arms
By MARK LANDLER
Expanded Coverage
In Depth: U.S. Foreign Policy
The New York Times
TAIPEI, Taiwan, April 24 — Politicians here expressed satisfaction today at the menu of weapons being offered to Taiwan by the United States. But there was little response on the streets of the capital, in part because there were few surprises, and also because China is seen today as an economic rather than a military threat.
Although the decision had been anticipated with hope and worry for weeks, people here generally expected President Bush to defer the sale of the Aegis combat radar system, while offering Taiwan the other items on its shopping list.
The whole question of what military hardware the White House has agreed to supply Taiwan is also less momentous today than it would have been a few years ago. With capital flowing from the sputtering Taiwanese economy to a booming China at an accelerating rate, trade ties with Taiwan's giant neighbor are now of greater concern.
The flow of investment to China coincides with a painful economic slowdown here. Exports are falling, output is slowing and the unemployment rate of nearly 4 percent is at its highest level since 1985.
This reversal of fortune has left people feeling vulnerable — not to an assault by Chinese ships or troops, but to the pressure of doing business with an emerging economic powerhouse. American-made destroyers cannot prevent Taiwanese companies from building chip factories outside Shanghai.
"Five years ago political tensions animated the relationship between Taiwan and China," said Yang Chao, the editor of The Journalist, a political magazine. "But now, Taiwanese people feel the existence of mainland China, almost physically, by the weight of the trade relationship."
Wu Yu-shan, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, said: "As long as China is not shooting missiles at us, there is a tendency to view it as an economic opportunity. The problem is that companies now believe that you have to invest outside Taiwan to survive."
Wei Chi-jiang, who was trading shares at a retail brokerage here, said: "We don't really care which weapons the U.S. sells Taiwan. What we care about is China's reaction. Almost all of Taiwan's investment has shifted to the mainland, so we really care about how they react."
Mr. Wei's comments were echoed by his fellow stock traders. Noting that Taiwan's leading companies had huge investments in China, they said it was more important to preserve the status quo than to beef up Taiwan's security. Several expressed relief that Mr. Bush did not offer to sell their military the Aegis system because it would have provoked China.
"The U.S. shouldn't sell overly advanced weapons to Taiwan," said Joe Chao, a theater owner. "That could be terribly dangerous."
Mr. Chao said the issue was especially sensitive because of the election last year of Chen Shui-bian as Taiwan's president. Beijing is deeply suspicious of Mr. Chen, a longtime opposition leader, because his party formally espouses independence for Taiwan, which China views as a renegade province.
[EDIT BY JAY: Beijing is not deeply suspicious. Beijing knows. Chen also knows that he will be no more, by the hands in Taiwan that feeds him, if he does not toe the line; such is the weight of money in politics]
"It might be O. K. to sell weapons to a K. M. T. government," Mr. Chao said, using the initials for Kuomintang, the Chinese name of the Nationalist Party. "But China doesn't think this government is stable."
[EDIT BY JAY: The PRC government and KMT has an understanding, and that is to return the KMT to power in Taiwan]
Such views are common among businesspeople. But the ties between Taiwan and China extend beyond commerce. Tourists from Taiwan are streaming into the mainland, as are graduate students eager to study literature, economics and Chinese medicine at mainland universities.
"Many of my former students are now at Beida," said Professor Wu, using the nickname for Beijing University. "These are the kinds of societal links that are being forged, even as the political tension remains."
Professor Wu noted that the muted reaction to the American decision was somewhat misleading. If the White House had suspended or radically scaled back the weapons program, he said, it would have been a rude shock to an island that depends on Washington to protect it from China.
Indeed, several people said they believed the Bush Administration was likely to be more supportive of Taiwan than the Clinton White House, simply because it had offered a more formidable array of weapons.
"It's good news," said Ling Shiang-shing, 36, an insurance saleswoman who was waiting for a train with her two children at the Taipei Railway Station. "I'm glad that someone is willing to sell weapons to us."
President Chen has so far declined to comment on the decision. A spokesman said the government would wait for a formal announcement from Washington. But members of Mr. Chen's party said it would increase the sagging confidence of investors — perhaps even persuading them to keep their money here.
[EDIT BY JAY: The capital will continue to rush to the mainland, because that is the future of capitalism, with a single city of Shanghai to be the equivalent of the whole Taiwan within, what, 20 years?]
"The local business community can feel that the U. S. stands behind us," said Parris Chang, a former adviser to Mr. Chen on security issues. "That kind of confidence may stem the flow of capital to China."
The Chinese government said today that it was seriously concerned by the White House's decision. And Mr. Chang acknowledged that China might retaliate against Taiwan. But he said it would also strengthen the hand of Mr. Chen's government in negotiating with Beijing over Taiwan's future.
Military analysts said the highlight of the package was the eight diesel-powered submarines and the P-3 aircraft. The planes address antisubmarine warfare, one of Taiwan's military deficiencies, said Alexander Huang, an analyst at the Chinese Eurasian Foundation, a research group here.
"It is so important to have sea denial capability," Mr. Huang said. "We are very happy we finally got it."
[EDIT BY JAY: sea denial capability? a few subs and P3s? all needing petro? all within easy strike distance? all located around a hollowed out island economy?]
Mr. Huang played down Mr. Bush's decision to defer the sale of the Aegis system, saying the United States and Taiwan could work together to "lay the groundwork" for Aegis-equipped warships in the future.
"The Taiwan government understands that we don't have to take on China this year," Mr. Huang said. "We can challenge them later, but we don't have to put all the variables in the basket this time around."
[EDIT BY JAY: The Taiwan government will change hands to the KMT, and that will be the proverbial end of the book]
UNQUOTE
Refer to context of my perspective in previous response ...
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