FWIW, here is the first cover sheet completed for our club after we discussed and edited the one shown here.
It was really a valuable exercise in using the form, as there was no interest in buying any shares of SCOR. Comments were made questioning the long-term viability of their market.
- Kris
Lunar Cover Sheet
Presenter: Kris Thompson Date April 14, 2001 Company/Symbol Syncor Int’l SCOR
1. Why are we discussing this stock?
· Value Line has it in its top 100 list; Ranked “1” in the 2nd ranked industry; project 75-175% growth in 3-5 yrs
· We have 36% of our portfolio in tech and only 18% in Health (an important area because of the baby boomers’ aging), yet this has a technology bent.
· It’s small ($1 bil market cap) and under followed.
· It has a little more pizzazz than the other stock I was considering presenting, a private mortgage insurer.
· S&P expects it to outperform the S&P 500 and gives it 4 stars.
· It’s cash flow positive.
· On April 6 it was recognized by Business Week as a top performer among S&P SmallCap 600 Index companies.
2. What do they do and how do they make money? They’re a high-tech health care services company selling radiopharmaceutical products and services to hospitals. In their nuclear pharmacy services business, Syncor compounds and dispenses radiopharmaceuticals for diagnostic and therapeutic use by nuclear medicine departments. They also do medical imaging.
3. I’ve checked/provided the following: S&P; VL; stock chart; Fundamentals/information compared to sector from: SmartMoney; Quicken.com; Forbes.com; Big Charts.
4. Reason for difference between sales and EPS growth (if any)? Unknown, but it is interesting/suspicious that VL estimates earnings to grow at 26.5% while sales only at 16% through 2006.
5. Anticipated source of future growth? Oncology field; radioactive seeds; and PET
6. If stock price has dropped, why? The stock has been moving up aggressively since early April.
7. What is the Fair Value? Quicken shows an intrinsic value of $59 and $67; S&P says Fair Value is $41
8. Does the company have a sustainable advantage gained through business momentum, patents, a quasi-monopoly, visionary leadership, a proprietary product, new technology, great management and/or inept competition?
9. Is the company part of a paradigm shift (e.g., connectivity, mobility, interactivity)? Perhaps, if you considered the use of radiotherapy and the effort to control health-care costs a paradigm shift.
10. Does the company compete on something other than price? One would assume so.
11. Is there relatively low analyst coverage? Yes. (5 analysts; VL just picked it up) Motley Fool: “SCOR has an ave. daily dollar volume of $5.88 mil, meaning a typical trading day sees only 160,200 shares changing hands. Yowser.”
12. Does the stock have excellent past share appreciation, measured by a relative strength of 90 or higher? Yes; Motley Fool gives it a 95
13. Are the Gross Margins at Least 40%? No. (35.7%) Are the Net Profit Margins 10% or greater? No, but at 6.5% SCOR has been consistently above the Drugs Wholesale industry's average over the last five years, and it’s been rising steadily.
14. Is the future PE less than 30? Yes – 21.1 Is the PEG ratio below 1.0? Yes - .89
15. Is the 200-day average on an upward trend? Yes, so is Money Flow
16. Am I being patient? Been somewhat of a wild since July, but what hasn’t? |
