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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board
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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (15770)5/1/2001 12:13:15 PM
From: rgammon  Read Replies (2) of 18929
 
Tom,

The cycles of the chip makers and their suppliers fit Mr L's prototype cycle almost perfectly. TXN, for example, has a historical price pattern in the late 90s of 30% appreciation per year and a 2:1 variation in price.

For 2000 and 2001, the 2:1 price swing is still there, the appreciation is not.

My analysis has generally ignored the longer term cycles of the chip companies. That cycle appears to be about 2 to 3 years in length. The problem with these cycles is that 16 cycles x 3 years per cycle is 48 years!!! Quite a LONG time to wait, and with inflation nibbling away, $1,000,000 won't be ANYTHING like what it was at the beginning.

Robert
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