Jim, that is my non-scientific seat-of-the-pants market view. My thinking is these guys are a good market-mood indicator.
So, the thesis is that when advertising picks up, the market starts looking ahead to better times... I wonder if there is some historical evidence that shows this as a leading indicator...
As you know, I have become pretty adept at catching certain market vibrations on a non-scientific basis..I just call 'em as I see them...
_______________________________________________________
Euro Falls Third Day on Reports of Slower Growth and Inflation
By Mark Tannenbaum
New York, June 19 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell a third day against the dollar and
broke a five-day rally against the yen as a report showing declining industrial
production bolstered the view that Europe's economy is slowing.
Europe's single currency slipped to 85.40 U.S. cents, from 86.09 in New York
late yesterday, and to 104.97 yen from 106.10. The euro has shed 9 percent
against the dollar and about 3 percent versus the yen since the start of the year.
The outlook for the euro remains poor, as ``there are signs the economy is
slowing down and there's no doubt about the magnitude of that slowdown,'' said
Ben Ghalmi, a Europe specialist at Alliance Capital Management LP, with about
$450 billion in assets. He's looking for euro zone growth of 2 percent or less this
year, down from a 2.7 percent projection six months ago.
The euro may ``sporadically'' weaken toward 80 cents in coming months, Ghalmi
said. Such declines will be short-lived, though, because they will likely trigger
signals from the European Central Bank that it will intervene and buy the
currency, he said.
In the latest evidence of flagging growth, euro region industrial production fell 0.5
percent in April, the European Union said today. A separate report showed
inflation in Belgium accelerated more quickly than projected in April.
Germany's economy, Europe's biggest, may not have grown at all in the second
quarter, making the government's 2 percent growth forecast for this year hard to
achieve, Economics Minister Werner Mueller said.
ECB in a Corner
``The overall picture in Europe continues to look more and more bleak,'' said Greg
Salvaggio, a vice president of trading at Tempus Consulting in Washington. The
euro will likely fall below 85 cents in coming days as traders look to a report
Friday expected to show declining German business confidence, he said.
The combination of slowing growth and quickening inflation is hurting the euro as
it leads some investors to conclude the European Central Bank won't have room
to lower interest rates to boost the economy while prices are rising.
Alliance's Ghalmi foresees the euro mainly trading in a range between 85 cents
and 87 cents for the time being, supported by intervention concern and held back
by worries the economy will continue to cool.
He sees a rate cut from the ECB coming imminently, as soon as this week's
policy meeting, and views the recent acceleration in euro-zone prices as a result
of temporary increases in food and energy costs. If the bank lowers rates and
signals more reductions are ahead, that could boost the euro by raising hopes for
a rebound, he said.
The yen erased an earlier loss and rose against the dollar after Bank of Japan
Governor Masaru Hayami said it's ``not right'' for Japan to weaken the yen to
boost its exports.
Japan's currency strengthened to 122.88 per dollar, from 123.27 yesterday.
Earlier today it fell as far as 123.80 per dollar, its weakest level since 124.05 on
May 16, as Japan's key stock indexes fell to three-month lows, sapping demand
for the currency.
The yen also rebounded as Hayami, speaking at a press conference, said the
central bank won't pump more money into the banking system, as he's being
pressured to do by politicians and economists. He said such a move wouldn't
help revive the flagging economy.
quote.bloomberg.com |
