A Pall over IPOs? A Wise Pall over IPOs! That was tried in the 1970s when giant companies became enormous conglomerates, but unfortunately, the money didn't go to shareholders. It went into the clutches of multi-tiered levels of management, overstaffed unions, inefficiency and general indifference to the "You" at the top of the pyramid.
So a long process of divestment, "stick to the knitting", re-engineering, downsizing, spinning off and general rehashing went on. New opportunities were taken by IPO people who seemed to have the get up and go, innovation, daring, ability and goals.
But IPOs turn to GOOFs about 6 months to a year after IPO when the initial thrill, hype, hope and expectation turns to grind, problems, competition, little action and depleted reserves. Loral, Qualcomm, Globalstar as just a few examples. So IPOs play right into the GOOF theorist, chess player's hands. Aha! Now I see. We chant "Just Say No to IPO!" in public, thereby creating more of them because of contrarian human nature. Meanwhile we prepare lists of them for harvest 6 months after launch.
Your take on balance between buyers and sellers being created by price fluctuations is same as mine. My point was simply that at any particular time, there IS a balance between greed and fear. Which way it will go is my problem. The answer to that question lies in the crowd of people getting ready to buy/sell but are hiding their shares, money and emotions out of sight of the current price balance. Maybe they are all sellers other than the few mad buyers still holding the balance at a high level. The Bull/Bear survey is trying to answer that question I suppose. Though my experience is that I feel fear AFTER the price drops: fear created out of thin air, like new money supply. I get hubris and my brainpower goes up, AFTER my shares rise in price; until they do rise it is only hope and expectation.
Give Bulls [not the Chicago] a 10% drop and they go all week at the knees and turn to bears. Whichever way the wind is blowing, that is the way they expect it to continue.
Somebody is leading it. Who? Michael, Baseball scores, Chows sleeping pointing north? Hey! I've just realized, "Bulls" vs bears. The Bulls must be the Chicago Bulls and MiCool is the main man. It really IS MiCool as the Bull market driver.
NGW |
