The way I see it, it is possible we may have a bear market rally in the near future... Long term, historically, bubbles take time to work out and may lead to great problems. Let’s put it this way: if I am offered a Japanese style gradual slide, with high employment, relative prosperity, little or no social upheaval, I’ll probably settle. It can be much worse.
The DOW first broke 1000, I believe, in ’66. After bumping against this level repeatedly over the years, it broke out finally – and assertively, never to look back – in ’82, in what apparently was the Wave 3 of 5 of a Supercycle degree. This article was written within days from the beginning of that advance.
Right now, if (IF) the ‘Wave 3 or C’ scenario does become reality, we are talking about a much smaller degree event. You don’t need a PE of 6 to kick it off… the time for that may arrive some day. However, the wave 2 psychology would parallel the one described in this article, albeit on a smaller scale. Take a look at my ‘Movie Review’ post, where I took a shot at illustrating the wave 2 mentality…
Message 16139799
Guys, one small request… my pen name comes from ‘ski’, like in SKInowSKI. Call me AK, ski, Anatole… I don’t want to be known as ‘skin’, getting too old for that...;-) |
