Hi CB, <<Deluge>> there is that word, right on time, per script, with correct emphasis ...
Message 16222275
<<First a trickle, turning into a torrent, and then transforming into a flood. Deluge will soon be a commonly used word>>
... leading on to disaster, debtblosion, devaluation, debasement, depression.
By the back and forth postings through SI, one would think the bulls and bears live on different planets. I suppose it is true.
Matters look pretty dire from where I am crouching.
Tomorrow I will pilot the motorized Chinese junk to an isolated beach not reachable by land. A bunch of pals and their kids will accompanying me. On the excursion will be one Hong Konger who is thinking of getting out of traditional core (textile) business passed down from a generation ago, and an US expatriate who will be going home after having done 20 year's of private money management in Asia for US based folks. My college buddy (CIO for Asia, Euro/US insurance company) and family will also be with us, and he skipped a 'promotion' in the US to present a more mobile target in Asia.
Events feel much more despondent than at the onset of Asian Financial Crisis. Amazingly, we are really just getting started, with plenty of cheerful headlines to numb our mind and weaken our conviction. Last night's equity action was a good example, with Mr. Chamberpot of CSCO seeing the unseen, and knowing the unknowable.
Oh, yes, no caviar and champagne for the picnic, and no expensive seafood lunch. We are doing the folksy thing of sandwiches and such, but still catered, as deflation in HK has made service and food more reasonable.
See, I believe I know what will soon be, and am on auto-pilot in response, because the environment tolerates no innovative response - just duck, run, dive, craw, hide, position, crouch, observe, and only then take aim.
Maurice prefers to stand in the open, under the glare of the sun, flak jacket open, facing the dark foliage, and screaming, "Hey, I am here, where are you!? Come get me if you dare".
Chugs, Jay |
