Hi Grace, <<I don't question that the dollar will fall I'm just wondering in relation to what (gold?)>> It would be against a basket of currencies, amongst which will be a perfectly adequate Euro, especially in light of the pending USD space detonation, irregardless of the paternal and maternal socialism that civilization, humanity, cultural, and old-world gentle wealth has elected to confer on themselves and others living in the Euro space. The basket will also have Swiss Franc, a promise made by the world’s watch-makers and bankers, managed by prudence and supported by gold, husbanded by a population that borrows little, cupped in the protective embrace of the mountain symbolizing neutral stability that no aircraft carrier can match, and especially recognized by scoundrels and rogues the world over as “hands-off” territory. For a miraculous moment that will stun the world, even the sickly Japanese Yen; but the miracle will have an absolutely logical and perfectly rational explanation, and so pay no attention to the then CNBC denigration at the onset of wild uncontrolled panic by the global electorates to reach for the USD space exit.
First a trickle, turning into a torrent, and then transforming into a flood. Deluge will soon be a commonly used word.
The honesty about currency trading is that it is fast, around the clock, fundamentally based, psychologically driven, policy reinforced, and most important of all, carried out by the global electorates, in a total and absolutely transparent manner, having little to do with the Sacramento socialist, Washington thieves, New York touts, Florida ballot counters, or Greenspankie’s nightmares.
<<other currencies will rise in relation to the dollar, then these other countries have stories that are improving, right?>>
Possibly wrong. Dow index components go up vis-à-vis the Nasdaq fiction characters not so much because Dow index components are improving but more due to them being marginally less bad. Choosing to drink either Clorox or arsenic is easy.
<<Where are conditions improving?>>
The better question at this moment, for the purpose of currency trading, is not where are things improving at the moment. The answer is simple as you implied, “no where”. The better question is, “where are events likely to turn rapidly and drastically worse in the immediate future, and with the highest distance to fall?”
Money is forever a refugee, with no nationality, ethnicity, religion, or loyalty. Money moves, perpetually, out of danger, away from harm, into welcoming ports of temporary call, waltzing through frenzied parties, flirts with the local lovelies, and then, once more, moves on, refugee once more.
I believe that the USD, once fallen, will then be matched by a round of competitive devaluation engineered by policy makers around the world to inflate away their own respective problems and fight off deflation, and the spiral then continues.
<<Is Europe finally throwing off the strangle-hold of socialism and high taxation?>>
Making fun of Europe and its system of tranquilly paced and harmonious living is easy. The difficulty is in remembering that choosing to pay higher taxes in exchange for the value returned is a vote caste by millions at regular intervals.
<<Is Asia developing an economy that is not dependant on exports?>> China and Japan exports relatively little by percentage terms. The US buys a lot, not by percentage, but in absolute value. The rest of Asia’s export will soon be a memory, and coconut palm fringed island resorts will soon be more plentiful and dramatically more affordable. Deflation has its positive aspects.
<<Is South American developing better financial controls?>>
South America has suffered a currency or debt crisis about once every 10 years for the last 150 years. They will continue to live off the world’s hand outs, because, the money, like water, always trickles to the lowlands. If I were a J6P, I would seriously consider relocating to any one of many Latin American spots where living like a king on Social Security payments, however diminished, is not a soggy fantasy, but a wet reality. One Gloria for cooking, another Mariah for housekeeping, a third Jennifer for pool cleaning, and a … for gardening. The mind warps and boggles.
<<Perhaps The country formerly known as the Soviet Union is becoming the new hot bed of capitalism.>>
Now, Grace, please do not forget to write that tax payment check come April so that the proper authorities can continue making good on their need to pump money into Russia to keep it from falling from the mezzanine ledge down into the sub-basement 2 drain. Having said that unkind word about Russia, I do not write-off Russia. It is simply another country comparable to USA 1910, and will again see the light of Arctic sun.
BTW, excuse my tone, if any tone is detectable, and color and images used in this post. I am just having a spot of fun posting to you, a new ‘bullet’ in our now increasingly crowded den :0)
Chugs, Jay
P.S. In case you missed my recent week’s posts concerning the enveloping situation and developing theme … a new urgency to reach the exit on the dollar
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