Reasons to be happy:
This thread seems to be in avoidance mode, either not posting, or discussing trivialities; I guess it's just too painful to look at the chart. So, in lieu of sending everyone my patented valium/prozac combo pill:
1. the stock seems to be declining at a decreasing rate. That is, the downward slope is getting flatter. The stock may be approaching an asymptote line, a line somewhat above zero, (maybe 12?).
2. Analyst EPS estimate revisions are slowing down. According to First Call, in the last 90 days, there were 20 analyst revisions to EMC 2002 EPS guesses (all down). In the last 30 days, there was only one revision (did you need to be told what kind of revision it was? OK, I won't keep you in suspense: it was down).
3. the consensus expected 2002 EPS is now down to 0.40, and the LT expected EPS growth rate is now 25%. These are lower hurdles to leap over (or at least meet) than previous expectations.
4. after a large cluster of insider sells in May (stock 40-45), there haven't been any further insider sales. This is in contrast to the overall market, where insider sell/buy
ratio continues at a record high, in spite of lower stock prices, indicating insiders think the stocks will go even lower. (Guess how many insider buys of EMC in the last 12 month?)
5. All this year, the Nas has bounced repeatedly in the current area, 1600-2000
6. The P/S ratio is now 15.31/(9.3B TTM sales/2.21B shares) = 3.6 The 5-year range of P/S is 2.1-25, so we are near the low end of the range.
7. the 5Y PE range is 10-160, and we are now at 22 (using TTM pro forma EPS).
8. the 5Y P/CF range is 12-99, and we are now at 17, so this also is a lot nearer the bottom than the top of the range.
9. Only 15 more points of potential downside left.
Are we happy yet? No? Then try Message 16282983 |
