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Strategies & Market Trends : Stocks Crossing The 13 Week Moving Average <$10.01

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To: Sergio H who wrote (9676)9/7/2001 11:47:34 AM
From: James Strauss  Read Replies (1) of 13094
 
Sergio:

There has been much anticipatory discussion on this thread over the months regarding the disbelief in the published unemployment numbers month after month given all the layoff announcements... Today's 4.9% unemployment number was probably back loaded from prior months... This leads me to speculate that the real unemployment number is over 5%...

One could argue that this is the trough in the economy, and it gets better from here... Or one could connect the economic dots to this scenario: Fewer workers>>>Reduction in retail spending>>>Reduction in raw materials needed to make retail goods>>>More layoffs>>>Further reduction in retail spending>>>More production and service side reductions>>>etc., etc., etc, and the housing market swoons>>>Reduction in lumber sales>>>Reduction in plumbing and electrical supply sales>>>Reduction in appliance sales>>>More layoffs...

Unfortunately, only time will unwind this capital expenditure recession...

Jim
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