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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: Nimbus who wrote (16986)	10/2/2001 12:47:33 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) of 18929

Hi N, We're getting close to the Low Risk area. In the past because of the moving averages built into the IW, it's been as much as 3 weeks late in defining the actual bottom, I believe. That's not been significant, but is something of which to be aware. In looking back, it appears that the NASDAQ lows have been defined when the IW's dropped into low risk and the Oscillator has still been a negative number. That's usually within a week or so of the market low. With the Oscillator still a very large negative number we can probably expect the IW to fall yet further next week. Right now the combined value of the IW and its Oscillator show 24% Cash for starting new stock accounts with AIM. That's solidly in the Low Risk area, even though all four components haven't yet fallen to their own Bullish territory. All that's left is Speculation and all that's left of it is one stock supporting that component barely in the Neutral range. This is about as close to a Low Risk reading as we can get without being there! Another way of measuring this is to check how painful the last 9 months have been. If it's been really painful, then we're nearing a low risk market point! Best regards, Tom

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