I have to disagree.
"VISG doesn't have much going for it in face recognition."
I can understand why someone might be skeptical about Face Recognition technology altogether, but I'm astonished anyone could say something like that if you meant to be understood as comparing companies within the field. Before September 11 VISG was the only dedicated FR company that was consistently making a profit from sales and services; and for the better part of four years it has been one of only two such companies to consistently perform the best in various third-party sponsored comparison tests.
"They don't have an exclusive license to the base technology they use."
That's not quite right. Lau, a privately held company, holds the patents and licensed them to their publically held subsidiary, VISG, on an exclusive basis. In other circumstances, one might be worried but Lau owns about 60% of VISG at last report. More recently, VISG cross-licensed to Lau technology which VISG had developed on its own for purposes of inclusion in Lau's separate military applications. A week ago Lau announced they were selling that military division to Northrup or someone like that. Don't know why yet. Maybe Lau has some other use for the money. But I'm betting Ms. Lau is planning to put more of herself into VISG's rapidly expanding business prospects. (If it were me, I'd use the money Lau will receive to buy out VISG and re-make it into an employee-owned corporation, as it once was and as so many other successful security firms are.)
"And right now it doesn't seem to be practical for the applications they are hyping."
Depends on what your expectations are, I suppose. If anyone expects Face Recognition systems to work like a rabbit trap -- something they can set, walk away from, and come back later to find the quarry has been caught -- well, they'll be disappointed. Face Recognition technology certainly isn't perfect, either. But older studies were impressive and more recent reports suggest improvements in software and hardware oer the last several months have been even more impressive. It is a technology, it seems to me, which easily lends itself to constant improvements in the algorithms, software, camera lenses, etc., and increasingly accurate recognition outcomes.
I see Face Recognition software as a security tool, not a panacea, for live security operators who are on watch for the bad guys. VISG's Face Recognition technology is, in fact, used just this way in casinos. I expect it to work more like an automatic electronic "alert" system, flashing a warning to security operators whenever a match or near-match from the data bank crosses the screen. Not many card sharks make it past casino security.
"It really looks like they are just trying to profit from fear and misery."
Don't you think that remark is a little over the top? Seems the same could be said about just about any defense stock, security stock, or for that matter almost any buy-or-sell-or-short-or-hedge decision on Wall Street. I sometimes wonder how McDonald's or Philip Morris shareholders can look themselves in the mirror, knowing what "their" companies are doing to our youth. In any event, it certainly sounds odd, maybe even a touch hypocritical, coming from any investor except someone who gives all his money away to non-profit charities.
Watch for stock sales soon.
No doubt. There have been lots of sales every day. VISG's chief executive officer said something a week or two ago to the effect that the stock might have run up a little fast, but he added that the company's business plan has been all of a sudden accelerated, too. Wouldn't surprise me to see a "retracement" in the stock price now and again. It happens with every other stock I've ever owned. Haven't yet enjoyed one that did nothing but go straight up.
For me the question is whether VISG is a profitable, well managed company in a sustainable industry with high growth prospects and a clean balance sheet. I think it is. Others no doubt think otherwise. That's what makes a market. |
