Hello Maurice, <<… check thru sniper scope before laughing... considering it's supposed to be the year of the financial collapse>>
Do not be overly disappointed at the still puny magnitude of the collapse. I advise patience.
I defined my Collapse Scenario 2001 as Nasdaq @ 1400, Dow @ 6000, and agreed with others that, in an uncontrolled spiral, we can see Nasdaq @ 900, and Dow at whatever …
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I had even provided for the possibility …
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“What may delay the reckoning will be a massive and unforgivable release of real liquidity that will replace the vaporized trillions of false value”.
I wrote ‘delay’, not ‘stop’. As far as I am concerned, within an acceptable margin of error, I have played the 2001 Collapse game OK, following my principles, namely …
Member 7255592
“Volatility = friend, Crisis = partner, Lonely path = right way, Survive = to fight another day”
Acted upon my own advice …
“Survive via Cash, short duration Bonds, Euro, and opportunistic trading, covered call/naked puts, multiple markets”
If I were to continue this following story …
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… which I will now do, I would say, the new home-based game engine is now a Gateway 1.5 Ghz machine costing less than the original 1.0 GHz relic that has been redeployed to the office. I have followed the thread discussion on ‘stuff’, and yes, 1.5 Ghz is more appreciated than 1.0 Ghz, and does allow me more ‘frags’ in any on-line battle, and …
unrealsp.org
Jacko roams effortlessly through the gravity-diminished environment, close quarter combat shrapnel launcher in hand, chased by confident and overly eager CNBC Anchor, long-range kill rocket launcher at ready. Jacko jumps off a high ledge, cartwheels mid-air, trigger finger squeezes instinctively as the shrapnel launcher muzzle aligns with hot-pursuit CNBC Anchor, for just an instant, and … Boom!, Arrg! Hot shrapnel! CNBC cheer is no more, fragmented, gibletized, and dispersed amongst gentling settling crimson mist.
Jacko lands softly on the lower platform, scared but not fearful, still high above the commotion of battling clans further below. Crouch, shuffle, and hide. Jacko disappears from view.
Nearby, an unaware passerby meanders by and by.
Maurice, whatever you are seeing through your scope, you are not looking at me. The reason? I am looking at you from this angle … ready, set, aim, bye and bye :0)
gamecritics.com
… and here is my Collapse Scenario for 2002, first as stated on September 7th …
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… and as nothing has happened to alter the range of probable exogenous inputs to the array of possible scenarios, I recently embellished my views thus …
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I can be wrong, and so I be prepared to be wrong. Whatever I do, it will not involve the purchase of a new SUV, or sign for a new mortgage, ‘stuff’ aside and Mr. McTeer not withstanding.
On <<Mqurice [have no margin having sold plenty of Q! - didn't want to be caught in the tornado/tsunami/crossfire if Jay was right]. Down 6% year to date = worse than Jay [up 8%], but not a disaster.... considering it's supposed to be the year of the financial collapse>>
Had we started with an equal pot of NAV, I would now have around 1400 basis points more than you; that much more to continue playing the game with. Let’s hope we both do well in 2002 and the gap does not widen further.
You are now better prepared for the Collapse of 2002 than you were for the one in 2001, and you would probably be OK with your revised prediction that DOW will not hit 16,000 by February of 2002.
I believe markets traditionally rise between November and January; so you can be even better prepared for 2002 by doing the right thing.
Overall I do not actually have much to complain about, as I had noted the trend in my neighborhood some time ago …
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“On deflation, and we have had some in the neighborhood, down the road, across the street and of course in China/Japan/SEAsia, most commodity prices go down. Real estate and stocks go down, but gold stayed even in local currency terms, allowing relative value to be picked up from the neighbors at the newly deflated prices. Sometimes wealth is absolute, at other times relative; ask Gate of MSFT, Son of SFTBF, and Larry of ORCL. I believe gold, physical and shares, should mostly be counter cyclical in the coming difficulty period. Deflation, should it happen in the US broadly, is uncharted for me, and so I keep my Roman gold coins handy on my desktop.”
… and …
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“Japan's job for the foreseeable future is to surrender its standard of living via deflation of assets and inflation of imported goodies via devaluation; capital and manufacturing outflows; capital, banking, insurance and pension losses. ”
… and the domino effects …
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“scarily again, that in the event of USD devaluation, and the deliberate synchronous Yen, Euro, Yuan, Baht, Peso, ... devaluation, the outcome would be truly New Ec, as in global deflation for manufactured goods due to the emergence of China as a manufacture base for all things electronic, Japan and Korea for all things on wheels, and India for all things software (these countries were not in play in 1929), and global inflation for all things petroleum and gold, due to lack of faith in the global currency USD (this USD was also not so dominant in 1929). Real estate etc and all assets that earn a declining return due to deflation will deflate as well. This would be a yet again unprecedented phenomenon, born of New Ec.”
… and one horrible implication …
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“The trouble with a world dominated by one belief system and one economic gene pool is that such a world may not have the necessary diversity to weather the meteor strike.
Welcome to the final chapter of New Ec”
… but one piece of good news, for those who like ‘stuff’ …
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“Deflation is actually OK if one is positioned correctly…”
For those correctly positioned, everything desirable will continue to get less expensive, be they Swiss equation of time machines, Thai vacations, Taiwan PCs, Japanese SUVs, Hong Kong seafood, San Francisco properties, or, as I am informed by others, politically incorrect, mistresses of various flavors, origins and categorizations <g> I have also followed the thread discussion on race and affirmative action.
Chugs, Jay |
