Predictions for 2002 (1/2)
I'm just going to critique my 2001 predictions:
Message 15107011
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- A light recession in 2001 will signal some alarms, but will not turn out to be the doom and gloom that media will portray it to be.
This came true.
- Alternative fuel sources (hydrogen fuel cells, etc etc) still won't have signifigant market penetration on the auto market.
This came true.
- Oil costs will hover around the $22-30 dollar level, and generally will not be a front page item.
Oil slipped as low as 17 bucks a barrel, right now is at $20, this mostly happened at the end of the year. I'd call this one a partial truth.
- Israel vs. Palestine will still be unresolved.
Easy to predict, came true.
- The summer this year will be the hottest ever. With this will come rather profound problems concerning drought, power (air conditioning), and other issues.
Don't recall this was too much of an issue - the summer seemed pretty normal, so I'd consider this one a screwed up prediction.
- Power troubles in California will continue to plague the state. Political games being played will not help resolve the issue.
There were political games (and still are), but right now power is not really a concern in California, considering they paid through the teeth in long-term energy contracts. Sucks to live there.
- Philadelphia will not win the super bowl. (sorry Eagles fans..)
Definetly true.
- 1.8GHz chips for US$400 at the end of 2001.
1.8GHz chip for CDN$370 = US$230, so I'd consider this a failed prediction since I'm nearly off 50%!
It will be the year of biotechnology. Lets face it, PC tech is dead.. semiconductors are in decline, networking is getting to be saturated, optical is past discovered.. this leaves biotechnology, which is still currently untrusted, and undiscovered.
Nothing really has changed in the markets over the past year, although I was right about semis and networking remaining stagnant, biotechnology has not taken off.
General market predictions:
At the end of 2001:
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^IXIC: 2700.
1950 at the end of 2001. Off by 35%, failed prediction.
QQQ/^NDX: 56/2250 (yes, this implies that the large cappers will get hit more than the overall market).
39/1577, so I botched up this one as well.
^DJX: 10400. (going nowhere)
10021 - accurate to 4%.
^SPX: 1360.
1148 - off by 16%. Failed prediction.
^IXB: 1450.
They changed this to the ^NBI, but I can't get any historical data on this, so I have no idea how this prediction went.
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5 specific stocks that should appreciate 50% over the year:
1. CEGE. Strongest balance sheet in the biotechnology sector compared to its market cap; 280 million cash, 8.95 million shares of ABGX. Solid results in clinical trials of GVAX product candidate. Potential future revenue windfall assuming TKTX wins lawsuit versus AMGN in future. Ended 2000 at 22 13/16.
Stock went nowhere.
2. CORR. Integrilin is worth more than what the stock is trading for currently. Suspect that current value of other product candidates are not factored in the stock; results of Phase II trials in Cromafiban should prove to be a strong determinant of stock price over 2001. Ended 2000 at 35 3/16.
Stock went down to 24 bucks.
3. INCY. Genomics rush is over. What's left is proteinomics, and INCY has the technological lead in this field. Celera has the CEO with the bigger mouth, but INCY has the better business. Both companies are loaded up with cash, and they both should consolidate their pure-play sector. Ended 2000 at 24 7/8.
Stock went down to 19.44. The company didn't get off to a great start to the year when they announced they weren't going to be profitable as the street thought they would.
4. BSQR. Embedded systems. PALM, HAND, RIMM are over-valued, and BSQR is a cheap play on Windows CE. Stock got crushed with tax loss selling. Top line, bottom line growth are very steady, profitable company, and 40% of the company's market cap is cash. Ended 2000 at 6.
Down to $4.17/share, looks like the economic downturn got to the company.
5. QTRN. Contract research organization, the biggest one out there.. the bio industry is flush with cash, and the CRO's should be able to take advantage of the influx of research money. QTRN is no exception. A side benefit is that QTRN owns 35 million shares of HLTH (consistutes about 10% of its current market cap), and if HLTH ever turns out to be anything, QTRN stands to make a fortune. Otherwise they are doing an okay job in turning around their operations to restore themselves back to positive operating cash flow. Very strong balance sheet here. Ended 2000 at 20 15/16.
Down to $16/share.
NOTE: My money is where my mouth is. I'm long shares in all the companies above except QTRN. Obviously, any of these positions can change at any time.
Thank god for stop losses! |
