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Pastimes : Predictions - Does Anybody Get It Right?
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To: MechanicalMethod who wrote (26)1/26/2002 2:40:52 PM
From: Dale Baker  Read Replies (1) of 117
 
It updates the prediction based on current information. A simple reiteration ... it's value is priceless.


You can't reiterate (i.e. repeat) and update (i.e. change) in the same breath and call it a prediction. An observation, perhaps. I wouldn't pay for it.

My opinion of this morning's weather updated this evening has no predictive value, it's just color commentary.

Another notion, when floor traders on the NYSE are interviewed, how often do they talk about their near-term predictions? Not often. They handle real money and have to react to the market they see unfolding.

If someone could predict short-term market moves well enough to make lots of money doing it, you would see it happen. Daytraders scalp and swing traders play individual issues. A few people make money playing index futures but not many.
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