Theo,
I've asked this before, but I think it is worth repeating. You as investors (and IMMM and First Sydney Capital) must ask yourselves what it will take to 'prove' the technology. You, the small investor, do not know what, if any, regional and/or local geological information was already available to IMMM/UPR prior to locating these wells. How are you going to determine on the basis of 2 (is this the number, I haven't kept up?) wells if success or failure is a result of the technology or if these outcomes are due primarily or entirely to more traditional methods?
As an example (and ONLY an example), let's assume the failure case. Let's also imagine that this cheap technology is actually effectual and that under the laws of averages you may expect it to correctly predict the presence of hydrocarbons 70% of the time, but that it failed in this case due to circumstances which rendered it ineffectual (overlying water-bearing formation?). Are you going to assume that EM Sounder itself is a scam? Please note that I have used the 'positive' case here, as I am trying to be fair.
I have worked with and tested many 'new' technologies over the years. The field of geophysics has changed drastically since 1980, when I entered the profession. I can tell you right now that one of the most difficult things about my job is determining when to recommend or reject something new and/or supposedly improved. I usually end up assigning a probability of success to something like this. The upshot of it all is that IMMM, regardless of the results of these wells, does not yet have a statistically valid sample of data.
These are tough questions. I would suspect that many shareholders are hoping for an announcement of a discovery to raise the stock price enough to get out with minimal financial damage. Consider my musings as being directed towards those looking at the longer term, if there any of you left.
Happy 4th of July. No fireworks for me here in Merrie Olde England. Perhaps I'll go throw some tea bags into the Thames.
Regards,
Mike |
