Stephen:
So the charts direction is more pertinent than the fundamentals?
For the near term, sure looks like it. Every company with debt on its balance sheet is being viewed as the next possible Enron - and that group unfortunately includes probably every fixed line and wireless telecom SP in the world.
For the longer term, fundamentals will eventually prevail, and unless you think everyone's going to quit buying cell phones and that new 3G networks worldwide will be a total bust, QCOM is the best long term bet.
Should we all sell in the money calls on our position before it goes to 32? Sell outright?
Well, that's the debate I've been having with myself since December, and continue to have:
Message 17058574
But I'm still holding, though with about half the position I originally bought in the mid $50's back in the summer of 2000, and I've made some (and lost some, but less) trading options along the way. In the recent slide since December 2001, QCOM looked like it would hold $50, then $45, then $40, but each time those "support points" turned out to be short lived rallies against the downtrend. $35 may hold, but also may be another "head fake".
Too late to sell now? Maybe, but based on the chart direction and the short term TA driven trading, we could see easily see the low $20's. It doesn't look as though "news" will break us out of this downtrend, and increasing revenues and earnings are still a couple of Q's away (IMO).
In retrospect, LTB&H's would have been much better off selling back in Nov 2000 - Feb 2001 at $85 to $105, and buying back a much bigger position here when it finally bottoms out. But, as I've said before, it's easy to trade the left hand side of the chart.
Good luck.
David T. |
