Hello Maurice, Dateline Flight CA910 Moscow-Beijing
Message 17463722
<<I would not like to step into the ring with those two (Japan & USA), who are likely to act in unison rather than on my behalf>>
We, as in you and I, now are in agreement more often than not on the facts. However, in this instance, we may still differ in the way we view our respective roles after the facts and before the truths.
You see yourself as <<A little kiwi versus ... a 400 kg gorilla and a black belt in jujitsu ... hide in a far away island, in the bush, in a cyberspace burrow>>
I see myself as a mischievous Trini bandit in the night, monitoring a slugfest of two, perhaps as you nemesis Mao would say, fiat paper tigers, each trying to alternately sniff at and grab the other's dangling parts. I occasionally pilfer the valuables of one or the other, and then quickly slip into the shadows until the next opportune moment. As 'retired' would say, 'wash, rinse, repeat'.
It is all very enjoyable, and to be perfectly Jay, or frank, the <<risk: reward ratio>> is tolerable, so far, as long as one diversifies across geography, asset class, industry sector, and time.
Oh, yeah, almost forgot, and do not forget to buy some gold, and one must constantly remind oneself that one can be terribly wrong, on everything, for a very long time, and this chance event is closer to 99.9998% than 0.0002% certainty.
<<reports from Russia ... You mean to say that they are not just lying down ... >>
Yeah, that is what I meant to say, but, having observed their systems in non-action over the past few days, and thought processes in still-life, I would say it is surprising that it empire's collapse took as long as it did.
I suppose, as historical processes go, 200 odd years rise-and-fall cycle is not so long, especially for something as large as Russia/USSR/Russia. Just the right length for a feature movie, with a coherent plot, good dialog, dramatic character development, and a moral kick in the behind, followed by a come-down.
My wife tells me India is far less efficient and much more convoluted than Russia, and rarely deliver as promised. I find my wife's observation difficult to believe, but not difficult to imagine. Of course, India was never an empire, and the explanation may be self-evident to frequent visitors.
My wife tells me the biggest difference she notes between Russia and India is that she detected no idealism in India, whereas many folks in Russia care very much about Mother’s revival.
Message 17463738
<<bought a gold ingot ... bliss! ... Trainee Aztec ... I realized how little gold one gets for a lot of money>>
I was inspired at the Kremlin. There were huge ingots of gold, platinum and diamonds on display. Apparently, before the world recognized platinum for its magic, the Russians used the metal to make common utensils, in place of tin.
Had the Czar’s family hoarded more such exotic utensils in locations even more weird, instead of simply laying claim to companies, oil fields, palaces, fiat paper, and functionary loyalty, then perhaps the family could now press the big Financial Reset Button that the hoard of precious metals represent, and emerge from that time machine we spoke of.
They could buy the CDMA network in Moscow. They didn't, and so they cannot.
But, then even if they had, they still cannot, because Moscow is perfectly content with GSM, as is most of the world. In any case, you know precisely what I meant to say.
I bought a few gold pieces in Russia, and only a few. The gold coins are available in slightly less than 1/2 oz size (they do the socialist metric way), and are only .900 gold. USSR and Russia non-standardized and debased even their gold.
I got different years bullion-ette, starting with 1981 vintage, complete with the hammer & sickle motif and worker in front of factory theme, to 2002 mintage, with the Russian double eagle on one side and the ballerina on the other.
The buying process took about an hour, after signing 5 pieces of paper per coin. Hong Kong would have completed the trade in about 5 minutes.
Side note: The Russian customs forced me to exchange my cash into traveler’s checks before leaving Russia, but allowed my gold to slip through unchallenged. They know nothing at all about the monetary truths, as opposed to facts.
I actually could have slipped just about anything through under the noses of officers exhibiting not one bit of interest in their jobs. I was too honest in answering questions.
Observation: I should be worried about the security of Russian nuclear storage facilities.
Observation: I should also worry about the presumably more easily available Russian shoulder-launched surface to air missiles, especially if suicide bombing goes out of fashion, and simple terror becomes the fad.
Observation: The US spends about USD 12 billion per year to purchase Russian spent-nuclear fuel. This be good business for the Russians.
I wonder:
(a) if investors in Russia can invest in this lucrative business via some sort of royalty trust program,
(b) if the price paid by the US would increase to compensate for any USD devaluation,
(c) if there can be any publicly traded derivatives based on such exotically toxic material, and
(d) if the buyers check to see if the spent fuel is actually such, and not such wrapped around lead.
Oh, and I nearly forgot. I also wonder if the US purchases the stuff by weight, or simply ‘so much USD for x% of output’.
<<brag for 1000 years>> cost a lot of money:0)
In my final ‘instant expert’ analysis, Russia’s revival will take a long time, perhaps too long, and then only if Putin is allowed to do his job, as opposed to being distracted by NATO expansion, rockets, WAT, and whatnot. The main problems in Russia are (oh Jay, here we go with the free expertise):
(a) lack of production and employment
(b) no lack of fiat cash (inflation is 15%+)
(c) no trust in the financial system
(d) no savings and capital pool by the people (only the ex-gangsters)
(e) no investment
(f) no emphasis on education
(g) too many leaders (democracy is definitely not a cure-all), equating to no leaders, as opposed to bad leaders
The big picture could be painted as follows if one steps back from the facts just a bit:
The world is crumbling through a combination of mind-numbing media preaching, snake oil (irrelevant solutions applied out of local context) sales, sabotaging, and now, the US, being the el-supremo left standing, MUST keep the peace given no one else is, can or can be bothered to. However good CB thinks the available advisors are, I believe they are simply not good enough, because no collection of experts in the world is good enough in a convoluted and aimless planet populated by so many, too many, free-willed agents.
After all, the aggregate group of advisors got us to where we are today.
Japan is weakening and dying, India is as ever was, USSR is no more and Russia is emptying, Europe never can be, Brazil never wanted to be, and I know Trinidad wants no part of the honor.
Jumping to the recently heated up thread topic of globalization – it is a variation of ‘let us all jump into the same boat, synchronize our economic and political gene codes, and hope it all works out OK with the boat’.
Here is a nausage-saving hint: contrarian-gold is not part of that boat’s design.
Here is the explication: Under such circumstances and within such context, betting on paper assets from this point on out is a 0.0002% play.
To make an equity play, we must wait for more visibility. Perhaps we do not have to wait long. But wait we must.
I am hoping that I am “the one that is terribly wrong, on everything, for a very long time, and this chance event is closer to 99.9998% than 0.0002% certainty”.
<<I thought there was some risk that Jay and co were right, so over a year ago, started clearing the decks for some turbulence>>
We here of the FC2001 thread can be right again and once more, until we are wrong.
<<A good thing that was too, as I would have been looking for a job polishing Jay's gold bars otherwise>>
That may still happen, unless you short-circuit the grid, jam up the gear train, and get some of your own metallic <<nausages>> after having escaped the ship.
I am now in Beijing, again meetings, for the sake of globalization, until Friday noon, followed by one delicious week of Hong Kong, enough time to polish my new Russian and USSR gold before arranging for framing of same.
Wife will leave Beijing tomorrow, a day earlier, and I promised to eat right and get plenty of exercise.
Chugs, Jay |
