Does anybody have a monopoly on objectivity?
There have been several posts from both sides of the fence, but mostly the bears, poking good natured fun at the delusional tendencies of the other side. An example would be Message 17475283.
And yet i detect a virtually identical tendency on the part of both bulls and bears to consistently interpret news events with a decidedly partisan stance. A recent example is
Message 17475956, wherein some bears' insistence that PCS rollout is even at this late hour in jeopardy of any material delays is reminiscent of those old Grandmas that, well into the 70s, clung to the belief that the trip to the moon was faked by the government.
My point is a simple one, and that is that its difficult to discern any greater objectivity among the QCOM bears than is seen from the QCOM bulls.And since we all have to live in this glass house together, well, you get the picture.
Therefore, in the spirit of objectivity, I'd like to thank robv for keeping this thread informed with OFDM developments. Of all the proposed threats to a good return from this level to QCOM shareholders, technological obsolescence is the one that concerns me the most.
I think it would be a great service to the board if anyone with knowledge or links concerning OFDM share it. Among the issues I would like to have a better understanding of are the following:
1. Why would the cost of OFDM infrastructure only be a fraction of the infra costs of current and 3G systems?
2. Can anyone provide a lay explanation as to whether the theoretical performance limits of CDMA-based systems is necessarily less than that of OFDM, and why?
3. George Gilder has alluded rather dismissively to the mere conceptual possibilty of OFDM which, he says , would require the violation of the known theoretical limitations of Shannon's (no relation to John, I don't think) "wide and weak" paradigm, as opposed to the here and now availability of 1x. (eerily reminiscent of the early hoots from the GSM crowd that CDMA "violated the laws of physics") Just how close is OFDM to being ready for widespread commercial deployment, what are the remaining technological issues to be resolved, and the proposed solutions to the same?
4. Assuming the technology to deploy OFDM is developed, how close are the applications developers to creating applications that would require the 25-35 mbps speed for faster transmission than what could be obtained on 1X ev-do or dv? On this point it appears that the 3G bulls and bears are each hoisted on their own petards, as the bears claim that we are nowhere close to developing useful applications that would require even the limited speeds of 1X, while the bulls maintain that if you provide the bandwidth, applications will be readily developed to use it.
5. As a variation on question number 2, is 1x ev-do and dv necessarily the end of the line for CDMA enhancements, and why? Just as there are both 2G and 3G CDMA systems, could there be a 4G CDMA system? Why or why not, and if so ,could it compete with what we at this point can conjecture about the characteristics of commercially deployed OFDM?
6. What does anyone know about the work, if any , that QCOM is doing on OFDM? From the press it would appear that no one other than Flarion is developing the technology. If this is true, and if OFDM can live up to its hype, what does that say about the value of Lucent at $4.00 or so a share, regardless of whether the rest of Lucent has any value at all?
Any ideas? |
