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Technology Stocks : STOCKS FOR THE COMING CONFLICT
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To: GARY P GROBBEL who wrote (2305)6/29/2002 10:53:04 PM
From: 96950   of 3054
 
I failed to elicit the right echos, let try to expain in plain language the first sentence in my missive i.e.The books Why Most Investors are Wrong Most of the Time, The Alchemy of Finance and Karl Popper.

My personaly digested abstract here comes out a little jagged and now bears little simblance to the literature which inspired it...Equity investors are especially prone to overestimate their own ability to evaluate and appraise the value and utility of financial data. We do not bring into question and consider sufficently our limitations in judgement. We tend to fail at calculating the odds in favor of us identifying and exploiting investment opportunities. Investors have a strong tendancy to posses an extraordinarily high degree of confidnence in th capacity of their critical skills when trained upon and pitted against the difficulty inherent in interpreting the meang of investment variables . As a result , we overvalue our inaccurate conclusions, postulations and opinions, and when calibrated up against the nature of financial reality, our ideas are generally in to rigid a form, in a configuration too precise and sharply difined, and in the presence of contrary evidence, defended by us too tenaciously. We fail to keep in mind the likelihood we may have misinterpreted some fragment of the information in question and that our conclusions are at least partially wrong, causing the risks we carry to bear a less an optimal relationship with potential rewards. We do not learn that we do not learn from our mistakes, we are prone to misrember our own predictions, so as to exagerate in hindsight what we beleived and thouht we knew in foresight. Exaggerating our contribution to a successful outcome and discounting our contribution to a failure.
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