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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 683.47

+0.6%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: j g cordes who wrote (37574)	7/12/2002 4:06:11 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 68426

My initial take on today. I have still not heard any of the CC's. "COMPX had a flat open, then promptly sold off to the day's low. It then re-bounded after the first half hour to clear the closing value from yesterday. It held in at that level till the normal 8:30 AM PST counter rally when it sold off back to the low. The pressure stopped as traders in the east went to lunch, at which time the market rallied into the afternoon counter rally. The COMPX made it to 1360 before the counter rally took over. The counter rally was weak though and failed to take the index back below the open level of 1345. We are one week before options expiration. Traders will clear their options today and tomorrow before any remaining time value completely disappears. As a result I doubt the current rally survives beyond Monday without a pull back. I will change my mind if the COMPX clears 1425 with volume. Right now the COMPX closed right at the 1370 near term down trend line. Intra-day gap at 1390. The COMPX and NYSE volumes were huge today. This typically would indicate a near term bottom. We need a follow through day tomorrow and the COMPX must clear above 1400, preferably 1425. COMPX did generate a intra-day buy signal, but most rallies have not last for more than a day or so. DELL raised guidance and JNPR beats after the close. We still need to see the reaction tomorrow. It is hard to tell whether JNPR raised rev guidance or not as the rev from the acquistion will be included next Q. EPC oversold on heavy volume. Intersting the change in leadership that is happening. Traditional tech leaders like CSCO, INTC, ORCL and MSFT seeing heavy volume and manging to close positive for the most part. We are seeing NVLS and KLAC leading the semi equip stock rather than AMAT though. EMC leading storage rather than ELX and BRCD. JDSU, NT and LU leading telecom equipment. FDRY is leading instead of EXTR in networkng. Essentially they are all beaten down tech stock that have collapse recently. It looks like trader are going for stock they think can't fall any further." Message 17726866

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