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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who wrote (13668)7/22/2002 9:35:49 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
OK JT, now for something completely different, my turn for a SWAG at this. I say that, cause I actually have a ton of cash on the sidelines to commit, and that's what counts now. Maybe I'll blow my wad too, but now with VIX at 48, and the ten day trailing put call ratio at .86, we are about where we need it for a good countertrend rally starting before end of week. It's a go once we see the dipsters absent the second hour "catch a falling knife" bidding. Maybe they've been conditioned by now not to buy the opening? Maybe they'll pass tomorrow? The next day? If they're in there pass, otherwise buy Joe and Martha Sixpack's last hour fund liquidation and that will mark the launch point.

The SPX will lag though, as will the large cap NASDAQ, as it will be a sector play. Favored groups: energy and biotech. Smaller tech will catch a bid too. Exit as soon as VIX dips below 30, and the PC below .50. Rally will then fade back near the launch point, and then we go into an extended quiet period, a basing action with a slight downward bias that may last the rest of the year. One group that continues to move higher: energy.

Message 17550089
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