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Technology Stocks : Conductus (NASDAQ: CDTS) superconductors

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To: arun gera who wrote (90)7/17/1996 1:25:00 PM
From: A.J. Mullen   of 352
 
I read a lot of these postings (and some of Isco & Scon) last night.
There's a lot of info. Let me try to summarize & have you correct me.

Superconducting filters allow for the generation of a clearer signal: less noise within and without the allocated band. This is currently only important for CDMA. In other systems the volume can be simply increased and the signal to noise ratio will improve. In CDMA the base station tells each unit to reduce the volume to the minimum that it (the base) can hear. This conserves battery-life in hand-helds. Further, in CDMA the band is subdivided, so reducing noise outside the subdivision reduces inteference to the other subdisions and improves the system rather than reduces problems for other systems.

Scon and ISCO use thin film technology (whatever that is) which is much more compact. CDTS has the advantage of enhancing range and thus reducing the number of base stations. Thus CDTS would have the edge, except that size is important in urban areas so CDTS greatest oportunity is in rural areas.

The Rep. of South Africa was mentioned in one post. Let me add a thought and some info here. One could argue that this would be a great opportunity for CTDS - it makes sense to leap traditional landlines and go straight to wireless to provide telephones to rural areas. There is however no need to go to CDMA there. The principle advantage of CDMA is the ability of packing more calls in a given spectrum, and spectrum is unlikely to be limiting in RSA. No need for CDMA: no need for superconducting filters. On the otherhand I sat next to a finance officer from Qualcomm on a flight to South Africa. He was involved in negotiations there, so RSA might adopt CDMA and hence need superconducting filters.

Back to my summary of previous postings. Arun valued CDTS at 30, SCOn at 30 and ISCO at 40 using the back of an enveloppe. Currently they are at 11.25, 7.5 and 24 (up aways today- why?) respectively. This would seem to make Scon the most attractive based on filters for base stations if all else were equal.

Both Scon and CDTS have other irons in the fire. SCon seems to me the most attractive, but why is ISCO valued at such a premium?

I look forward to corrections and comments.

AJ
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