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Biotech / Medical : Guidant (GDT)
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To: Lighthouse who wrote (206)9/3/2002 10:29:07 PM
From: Ausdauer  Read Replies (1) of 235
 
Lighthouse, I believe that JNJ has set a very tough standard to beat.

And when it comes to stent selection from a physician perspective I think
it will be important to show equivalent results between brands before stents
from different manufacturers are used interchangeably. The bare stent market
allows several competitors because of a perceived equivalency of the products
by interventional cardiologists.

The RAVEL study that was published in June had impressive results. These included a
marked reduction in the volumetric measurement of neointimal hyperphasia at 6 mos,
zero percent restenosis at 6 months, no evidence of late (subacute) stent thrombosis, and
zero percent target vessel revascularization at 1 year.

Two key points that should be mentioned about the study include the fact
that nearly one fifth of the stents implanted were 2.5 mm and the beneficial
effects of rapamycin were also noted in the diabetic population.

IMHO, before drug-eluting stents are deemed equivalent, clinical trials will
need to show equivalency. JNJ has a set a high standard and has a big head start.

GDT is making a big investment in Cook in order to try to level the playing field.
At the current stock price of GDT a $3 billion dollar investment translates to about
80 million new GDT shares, a greater than 25% dilution in outstanding shares. That is
a big price to pay for technology that is second to market.

If the deal falls through and GDT has no drug-eluting stents to compete
with JNJ it is easy to predict that it will lose substantial market share in
this book of business, and quite rapidly.

Aus
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