Severe Crop Losses Confirmed
Statistics Canada released its September crop survey the morning of Friday, October 4, confirming the gloomy numbers first issued in July. At that time, the agency predicted that the wheat crop would slump to its lowest level in 28 years and that barley would slide to a 34-year low.
Total Canadian wheat production is still expected to be about 15.5 million tonnes, a 25% drop from last year and less than half the record of 32.1 million tonnes set in 1990.
Canadian spring wheat production is estimated at 10.3 million tonnes, up approximately 100,000 tonnes from the July report. The average yield estimate is up by a marginal 0.2 bushels per acre from July, at 24.4 bushels per acre. This compares with the 10-year average of 33.1 bushels per acre. The average yield for Western Canada only was 23.8 bushels per acre.
Durum output is estimated at almost 50,000 tonnes less than in July at 3.6 million tonnes. The decrease is the result of an additional 100,000 acres in Saskatchewan being abandoned. The average durum yield of 24.3 bushels per acre is up from last year’s average of 21.8, but still far below the 10-year average of 31.4. The average yield for Western Canada only was 24.3 bushels per acre.
At about 7.7 million tonnes, barley production is down about 205,000 tonnes from StatsCan’s previous forecast. The new, lower forecast is the result of a smaller harvested area. The average yield estimate across Canada is little changed from July, while Statistics Canada pegs the average yield across Western Canada at 38.3 bushels per acre.
Poor growing conditions have cut 140,000 tonnes from the 2002 oat production since the July report, bringing the September estimate to 2.9 million tonnes. Of the 2.6 million acres seeded to oats in Saskatchewan, only 1.6 million will be harvested. That’s just 62% of the total, so it speaks loudly about the weather problems.
Worse yet, in Alberta, the area seeded to oats was 1.7 million acres and only 500,000 acres will be harvested for grain – just 29%! The average oat yield across the west is 50.7 bushels per acre.
Canola production increased slightly from July and is now expected to come in at 3.3 million tonnes, still a 33% drop from 2001.
During August’s bout of bad harvest weather, there was talk production could drop below 3 million tonnes. But the only change made by Statistics Canada between their July 31 and September 30 reports was to reduce the number of harvested acres by 100,000. Yield estimates actually improved due to reports from farmers in the eastern Prairies who harvested better than expected crops.
Dry pea production is estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, down from about t2 million last year. Drought cut the average yield to 18.9 bushels per acre, down from 23.4 in 2001 and the lowest since 1988.
Statistics Canada issued a lentil forecast for Saskatchewan of 402,300 tonnes, down 28% from last year because of a huge drop in acres planted. Yield this year was higher.
Saskatchewan mustard production at 155,100 tonnes was up 70% due to more acres being planted as well as better yields.
Canary seed in that province told a similar story with production of 150,600 tonnes, up almost 50% from 2001.
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