It will put pressure on the Israeli right to back off of funding more settlements, and will weaken Sharon's government and his ability to have "carte blanche" in affairs related to the peace process.
It might also provide Palestinian moderates the leverage they need to reach out to Israeli labor and bypass the heated rhetoric on both sides.
I don't think so, Hawk. Labor is too weak. I think the Likud assessment, that Fuad treed himself and can't get down, is more accurate. Fuad needed an issue to try to win the Labor party chairmanship, which is in a three-way fight between himself, Ramon, and Mitzna. It looked like he was losing, and if one of the others won, they would likely pull out of the government anyway, and he would lose his post as DM. So Fuad decided to pull the plug himself.
It's a pyrrhic victory for Labor at best. The parties of the Right, Shas and Moledet et. al, as well as the Likud, are going to say, "so you want new elections? fine by us!" -- Labor is going to get creamed. Labor only holds a plurality in the Knesset because the last Knesset election was when Barak was elected. Labor is polling about 15% support among Israelis; all polls expect a strong Likud plurality if new elections are held. |
