John and I have had a few PMs on the election tomorrow, and one thing we both agree on is that the Senate will probably not be decided until the Lawyers are done. An article from the WP on this subject.
washingtonpost.com
Battle for Senate May Outlast Election Day
Party Leaders Brace for Limbo
By Helen Dewar
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, November 4, 2002; Page A06
It may take more than the bang of a gavel to get the United States Senate organized after Tuesday's elections.
A combination of close races, slow counting of paper ballots, quirky state laws and possible recounts and legal challenges -- along with the possibility of a December runoff election in Louisiana -- could mean it will be days or even weeks before Americans know which party they have chosen to control the Senate for the next two years.
It could also seriously complicate plans for a "lame duck" session of both houses scheduled to convene Nov. 12, possibly even shifting control of the Senate one or more times between Democrats and Republicans before the new 108th Congress is seated in January.
Of course, it is also possible that one of the parties may win enough seats to provide a comfortable cushion, without endangering the Democrats' one-vote majority for the rest of this year. But leaders of both parties are bracing for a long and possibly inconclusive election night, with lawyers preparing for emergency duty in the battleground states.
Republicans are particularly looking out for voter fraud, while Democrats are on the prowl for voter intimidation.
"On top of there being an unusually large number of close elections, there are an unusually large number of elections that involve unique legal issues," said Marc Elias, counsel for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
"This is the first election since Florida . . . and Florida taught everyone to be prepared," said Alex Vogel, general counsel for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, referring to that state's bitterly contested presidential election in 2000.
The biggest uncertainty is the large number of close races that could spur overtime action of some kind, such as protracted counting of paper ballots, recounts or lawsuits.
For instance, Minnesotans will have to vote by paper ballot in the Senate race because of the last-minute substitution of former vice president Walter F. Mondale for the late Sen. Paul D. Wellstone (D), who died Oct. 25 in a plane crash. Vogel said he has heard it could take several days to count the paper ballots.
In a partial victory for Democrats, who had filed a lawsuit, the state Supreme Court ordered election officials to send new absentee ballots to voters who requested them. But it was not clear whether those who already voted for Wellstone and wanted to switch their votes to Mondale could get their new ballots back in time. Wellstone votes will not be counted for Mondale in his race against Republican Norm Coleman.
Absentee ballots also are counted by hand in other states, which could mean delays in close races. In Oregon, where Sen. Gordon H. Smith (R) leads but is not a sure winner, the whole election is conducted by mail. Two years ago, it took nearly a month to count mail ballots and formalize the narrow victory of Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) in neighboring Washington state.
Louisiana poses the greatest potential for delay. Under state law, a runoff will be held Dec. 7 if no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote in Tuesday's election, in which multiple candidates from multiple parties run at once. With three Republicans on that ballot, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) leads but falls short of 50 percent, according to polls. It's unclear how vulnerable she might be in a runoff, in which Republicans would try to rally voters behind one challenger, but it could mean a month's delay in knowing which party controls a narrowly divided Senate.
The outlook is equally murky for the lame-duck session, during which Congress will again try to pass its annual spending bills and enact legislation to create a Department of Homeland Security. But lawmakers can postpone both chores to 2003, and they are all the more likely to do so if the election results in major changes to Capitol Hill's balance of power.
Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-Mo.), locked in a close race with former representative Jim Talent (R), received a two-year appointment to the Senate after Missouri voters elected her husband after he was killed in a plane crash in October 2000. Her appointment ends with the certification of Tuesday's election results. A Talent win could switch control of the Senate to the GOP for the rest of this year, even if Democrats win a majority for the new congress that starts in January. But the election has to be certified by Gov. Bob Holden, a Democrat, and state law is not clear on when the governor must act.
Alaska presents another complication. Sen. Frank R. Murkowski (R-Alaska) is running for governor and if he wins, he could name his Senate successor. He would have to resign his Senate seat before taking over as governor Dec. 2. Alaska law requires a five-day wait before a new governor can name his replacement.
In Minnesota, state law provides that whoever is elected to the Senate Tuesday takes office immediately upon certification. Certification is scheduled for Nov. 19, although Gov. Jesse Ventura (I) said it could take longer. Ventura, angry at what he described as the partisan tone of a Wellstone memorial service, said he may appoint someone without regard to political affiliation to fill the vacancy, in the meantime, adding another element of uncertainty to the lame-duck session |
