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To: LindyBill who wrote (2087)11/4/2002 4:09:57 AM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) of 6901
 
Hi LindyBill; Re: "We have been talking about this for a year, Carl, ever since 911 and the Saudis would not let us run the Afghanistan war out of SA. That is why we have built new bases in the Emirates. You did not notice?"

What Nadine has been saying is that Saudi Arabia would let us run a war against Iraq. For example, Nadine did reference the news today, but only in denial:

I think the open refusal of the Saudi FM to let the US use its Saudi bases was a result of the lessened pressure (but let's watch what they actually wind up doing).
#reply-18190691

The "lessened pressure" that Nadine refers to is the reduced pressure by the Bush Administration for an attack on Iraq. She thinks that the pressure will increase again after the election. I think otherwise, and that the reduced pressure came with the discovery that North Korea already has nukes. If you're selling the Iraq attack to the American people as a solution to the problem of rogue states with nukes, then the prospect of having to fight Iraq and North Korea, (and God knows who else), makes your foreign policy recipe much less attractive to the American voter. I think that this in itself is sufficient to explain the reduction in pressure.

I could be wrong about the timing of the reduction in administration pressure for war with Iraq (that is, maybe the administration will resume pressure after the elections). But putting together a coalition to attack Iraq is still impossible (and even more impossible now that the Turks have voted in an Islamic government), so there will be no war no matter what the Bush administration says.

We should know whether the pressure is on again for a war with Iraq within a week after the election, I would think. And eventually it will be obvious to all that the threat of war has passed. But as with all things, different people will figure it out at different times.

-- Carl
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